Saturday, February 28, 2015

Take that, Detroit

While I have a fairly clear mental map of the geography of white intelligence, socio-political, and cultural distributions in the US, I tend to think of black populations--at least concentrated black populations--as, well, black populations. If you've listened to one local hip hop station, you've listened to them all.

Steve Sailer periodically snaps me out of that lazy thinking by noting the especially poor performance of contemporary blacks in the Upper Midwest, with Milwaukee and its history through the 20th century as a prime case study.

As luck would have it, NAEP results are available for 21 metro areas in the US, including Milwaukee. The following table shows estimated average IQ among black 8th graders taking the NAEP math and reading assessments in 2013 by jurisdiction. The scores for both tests are on a 500 point scale, with a standard deviation of 37 on the math assessment and 34 on the reading assessment. In the subsequent table, these are converted into IQ estimates with a mean of 98--corresponding to the national average NAEP scores of 283.62 for math and 266.02 for reading--and a standard deviation of 15. The math and reading scores are weighted equally. The data are insufficient for Albuquerque, but the other 20 cities the NAEP sampled are all included:

1. Charlotte92.6
2. Boston91.2
3. New York City90.9
4. Hillsborough County (FL)90.9
5. Houston90.8
6. Austin90.0
7. Atlanta89.7
8. Dallas89.0
9. Baltimore88.8
10. Miami-Dade88.4
11. San Diego88.4
12. Chicago88.2
13. Philadelphia87.9
14. Jefferson County (KY)87.5
15. Los Angeles86.7
16. District of Columbia85.4
17. Cleveland84.1
18. Fresno84.0
19. Milwaukee83.1
20. Detroit83.0

Milwaukee can be thankful for Detroit. Detroit, in turn, might be thankful for, uh, East St. Louis, though the last bit is just speculation on my part. Cleveland, another Upper Midwestern city, also fares poorly. The birthplace of the Crips and the Bloods outperforms all of them. Chicago is the best the region is able to boast, and it's still in the bottom half of the jurisdictions considered.

Steve's perspicacity can hardly be overstated. Generous welfare programs are going to, ceteris paribus, attract welfare recipients. The tactics to 'gentrify' a jurisdiction include restricting the amount of land available for certain kinds of development (whether it be through zoning or merely the physical terrain), instituting municipal and county minimum wages significantly higher than the national minimum wage, and curtailing welfare program payouts as aggressively as possible. Because the last two are each generally supported by different political factions, there is currently an opportunity for either red state or blue state America to gentrify on a systematic, nationwide scale by, in the case of red staters, dropping their opposition to increasing legal minimum wage rates and in the case of blue staters, dropping their opposition to curtailing welfare benefits. While it seems like a tough sell to red state America, it's an even more difficult sale to close with blue staters.

This game of hot potato is, nationally, a zero-sum endeavor, but the cracks in the national foundation are increasing in number and intensity by the day, just as the dead weight costs that the underclasses impose increases. The stakes are getting higher.


Thagomizer said...

Forget lowering minimum wage...

Red states should instead offer long term welfare recipients $1500 / person to move to blue states.

Dan said...

Is there actual welfare data on these cities? I thought Detroit blacks arrived for the jobs in the car industry back in the day.

What about cracking down on crime? That's how Bloomie and Guiliani gentrified. Presumably the thugs go elsewhere if they keep getting frisked.

TangoMan said...

While the stakes are getting higher, the problem is often masked by Simpson's Paradox. Your tactic of looking at specific populations helps to unmask the situation.

When I'm confronted by a smarmy liberal who is ragging on the inbred southerners, I disentangle the data for them. For instance, they may crow about how enlightened Minnesota might be in relation to Texas (NAEP 8th grade math scores of 295 & 288 respectively) so I break it down by race, white, black, Hispanic & Asian (Minnesota = 301, 260, 273, 291) (Texas = 300, 273, 281, 319). Gee whiz, Texas seems to do much better in the activity of education when race is controlled.

Good job on breaking things down to where information is no longer masked.

Audacious Epigone said...


Heh, help 'emigrants' locate the nearest SS offices once they get to their new homes, too!


Here are per capita welfare expenditures by state (not city), 2005. They aren't adjusted for cost of living, but Michigan still looks pretty bad for how white it is.


Texas does really well on NAEP, and that strong performance holds across racial groups. Greg Cochran thinks it's too good to be true.

JayMan said...

Still seems much too high. I'm mentally subtracting 5 points from each score.

Dan said...

Combining the data, I add, in parentheses, the welfare rank of the state containing each city as per the link you provided.

1. Charlotte 92.6 (28)
2. Boston 91.2 (24)
3. New York City 90.9 (2)
4. Hillsborough County (FL) 90.9 (50)
5. Houston 90.8 (29)
6. Austin 90.0 (29)
7. Atlanta 89.7 (13)
8. Dallas 89.0 (29)
9. Baltimore 88.8 (45)
10. Miami-Dade 88.4 (50)
11. San Diego 88.4 (3)
12. Chicago 88.2 (31)
13. Philadelphia 87.9 (11)
14. Jefferson County (KY) 87.5 (15)
15. Los Angeles 86.7 (3)
16. District of Columbia 85.4 (1)
17. Cleveland 84.1 (42)
18. Fresno 84.0 (3)
19. Milwaukee 83.1 (25)
20. Detroit 83.0 (8)

It is hard to see a real correlation. But then again, per capita welfare spending is not a strong indicator by itself of how generous a state is. Wisconsin, known to be very generous, only ranks at only 25 in per capita welfare spending, presumably because the founding stock uses it very little.

Dan said...

Ruminating on this I can't ferret out a pattern. States like Massachusetts and New York are known to be among the most welfare-generous. Just look at how much the Tsarnaevs got.

I think that NAEP which measures things like readying surely has a large nurture component. One only has to look at the changes in literacy across times and places to see that education makes a big difference.

Is there any purer test data available?

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