Saturday, February 14, 2015

2013 IQ estimates by state, total and white only

Steve Sailer's highlighting of 2013 white IQ estimates by state led to my receiving a few useful tips on how to improve the quality of the conversions. The estimates subsequently provided and the estimates provided in the original post correlate at a almost perfect .994, so the adjustments are very marginal, but, to the extent that they've changed, presumably better*. The accompanying maps are not recreated here as they would be virtually indistinguishable from one the originals. For more on the methodology and light commentary, please see the original posts here (all) and here (whites only), and also blacks only here.

Mean IQ estimates by state using 2013 8th grade math and reading NAEP assessment data:

StateIQ
1. Massachusetts103.9
2. New Jersey102.8
3. New Hampshire102.3
4. Vermont102.2
DoDEA101.7
5. Minnesota101.3
6. Washington100.6
7. Pennsylvania100.6
8. Montana100.4
9. Colorado100.3
10. Maryland100.3
11. Connecticut100.2
12. Wyoming100.0
13. Ohio99.9
14. North Dakota99.8
15. Maine99.7
16. Idaho99.5
17. Kansas99.4
18. Wisconsin99.4
19. Virginia99.3
20. South Dakota99.2
21. Indiana99.1
22. Utah99.0
23. Nebraska99.0
24. Iowa99.0
25. Oregon98.5
26. Illinois98.5
27. Texas98.4
28. Rhode Island98.2
29. Kentucky98.2
30. Missouri98.1
31. North Carolina98.1
32. Delaware97.7
33. New York97.7
34. Florida97.4
35. Michigan97.3
36. Georgia96.8
37. Tennessee96.7
38. Alaska96.5
39. South Carolina96.2
40. Hawaii96.2
41. Arizona96.0
42. Nevada96.0
43. Arkansas95.9
44. Oklahoma95.5
45. California95.4
46. West Virginia94.2
47. Louisiana93.9
48. New Mexico93.6
49. Alabama93.2
50. Mississippi92.6
51. District of Columbia90.2

And the same but with only non-Hispanic white students considered:

StateIQ
1. District of Columbia111.6
2. Massachusetts107.0
3. New Jersey105.8
4. Maryland104.8
5. Colorado104.2
6. Connecticut104.2
7. Texas104.1
DoDEA104.1
8. Minnesota103.9
9. Pennsylvania103.5
10. Washington103.3
11. Illinois102.8
12. New Hampshire102.8
13. Vermont102.5
14. Virginia102.4
15. New York102.4
16. Montana102.2
17. North Carolina102.2
18. Alaska101.9
19. Wisconsin101.9
20. Rhode Island101.9
21. Kansas101.7
22. Ohio101.7
23. Delaware101.7
24. Nebraska101.6
25. California101.6
26. Arizona101.5
27. Georgia101.4
28. South Dakota101.3
29. Florida101.2
30. North Dakota101.2
31. Idaho101.1
32. Utah101.1
33. Hawaii101.1
34. Indiana101.0
35. Wyoming101.0
36. Oregon101.0
37. South Carolina100.7
38. Nevada100.5
39. Missouri100.4
40. New Mexico100.3
41. Iowa100.3
42. Maine100.0
43. Michigan99.6
44. Kentucky99.4
45. Arkansas99.0
46. Tennessee98.9
47. Louisiana98.8
48. Mississippi98.2
49. Oklahoma97.9
50. Alabama97.3
51. West Virginia94.3

* Firstly, I dispensed with the attempted private school adjustments that were a consequence of me trying to be clever by adding an unnecessary wrinkle to the scores, one that I ported from the first set of estimates I put together nearly a decade ago. The NAEP reports that it tests a representative sample of private and public school students from each state, so that's what we should go with.

Secondly, while the NAEP tests were originally designed to have a 50 point standard deviation on a 500 point scale, over the last several years the SDs have been narrower than 50. They vary slightly by year, subject, and grade, but the national sample SDs for 2013 were 37 for math and 34 for reading. As a consequence, there is more variance in estimated IQ among the top and bottom states. The relative difference between states remains essentially unchanged--this is a 'cosmetic' upgrade.

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