Sunday, December 28, 2014

Rapacious repetition

The DOJ's statistics show that the absurd assertion that 1-in-5 or even 1-in-4 college women have been raped is, well, absurd. The actual figure is closer to 1-in-125*, although it is almost certainly less common still than that, as this rate is arrived at by presuming that 100% of all reported college campus rapes legitimately occurred. When it comes to the veracity of rape allegations, however, the estimated rate of false accusations covers a frustratingly large range, from 2% on the low end to as high as 90% on the upper end.

So, here's an assertion that we could irresponsibly make if we wanted to cherry pick what we are desiring to advocate: 3-in-5 rape allegations are BS! Irresponsible though it would be, it would still have more empirical grounding--that is to say, at least some tenuous, sandy grounding at all--than the bogus 1-in-5 factoid that gets so recklessly tossed around by Professional Feminists. Occasionally, sometimes, often, much, and conceivably even most of the time, then, the victim who suffers when a rape accusation is made is a man. Increasingly, the effective standard isn't innocent until proven guilty. Hell, it's not even guilty until proven innocent. It's guilty because accused, period. Even if a falsely accused man eventually exonerates himself and clears his name in the legal arena, his reputation is often forever tarnished.

There is no rape epidemic in the US. To the contrary, rape rates have dropped substantially over the last few decades, in line with the broader trend in steadily decreasing violent crime. The NCVS found a rape rate of 2.4 per 1,000 people aged 12 and older in 1980. Today that rate has fallen to 0.4 per 1,000 people. There is, however, a potentially budding epidemic of false accusations of rape, enabled by culturally Marxist academia, an embarrassingly credulous, standardless, derelict media establishment, and the narcissistic desires of many women to be coddled as victims regardless of the collateral damage satisfying these desires causes other people to suffer.

* The latest data from the US DOJ shows 10,237 reported completed rapes of college women aged 18-24 out of a population of 5,130,004. Multiplying the 10,237 by 4 and dividing it by the 5.1 million total female college population yields the 1-in-125 figure. See table 1 for details.

12 comments:

Dan said...

This trend of false rape accusation (if it is indeed a trend) does not worry me yet.

So far a reasonable legal system still exists, and these things seem to turn out well in the end, humiliating all the right people in the end. Too bad for the dudes who must defend themselves. But defend themselves they will, because they have no choice. And then the lies fall apart. The accused become unwilling but important warriors.

For example, I am glad the Tawana Brawley accusation and the Duke Lacrosse accusation, the Fatty McDunham accusation and the recent UVA accusation occurred, etc. because they each drew in and then humiliated all the right parts of the media.

Maybe even now, the New York Times staff are engaged in soul-searching on the topic of 'why do we suck?' Or is that a bridge of optimism too far?

Unknown said...

Lots of interesting data - thanks for the link. In most true rape cases, the genuine victim bears obvious physical evidence of the crime. Of course, this is not always the case, as could occur when the perp threatens the victim with a weapon (as occurs in about 10% of the cases, according to the report). Now we have to acknowledge the possibility that the victim could be lying about the weapon, but still, if the use of a weapon is alleged, I would tend to view the claim more seriously, even in the absence of physical lesions.

Rape is a horrible crime, and it is inconceivable to me that a victim would fail to report it. If we used the standard of criminal conviction of the perp as the numerator, I wonder what the true incidence would be? If any other type of crime is reported on campus, the police are called in and conduct a proper investigation. If a potential perp is identified, his or her constitutional rights are fully protected, and the case must be proved beyond a reasonable doubt before an impartial judge and jury. But for rape allgations, the Constitution goes out the window, and standards of proof more typical of the Gestapo or NKVD are used.

It's disgusting that Obama and his MSM enablers continue to peddle these Big Lies with no accountability, but I'm afarid it's just what we have come to expect nowadays.

Anonymous said...

Unknown , I also feel that the police's tactics can be unconstitutional when investigating alleged perpetrators in rape cases. It's very one sided.Buuuut then again it can be looked at as affirmative action since rape is a type of crime where the victim usually feel a lot of self guilt, shame and doubt.

Audacious Epigone said...

Dan,

Yes, it does create unwilling paladins who are forced to fight against the worst practical aspects of feminism, and I guess the consequent fear that "regret" might be turned into "rape" could cause men to behave more productively. But I don't see that much blowback against the really irresponsible behavior of rape accusers and their enablers here.

I'd be interested in the results of a Pew research poll on what the public's perception of the Tawana Brawley affair or the Duke Lacrosse rape case is a couple of decades and several years on turns out to be. To the extent that this UVA mendacity is remembered a year in the future, how will it be remembered?

Unknown,

It's pretty common to hear about the putative unreported cases of rape in response to pointing out the fact that the rate of false accusations for rape, whatever the precise figure, appears to be substantially higher than it is for other violent crimes. Are we to believe, then, that while there are lots of women who falsely accuse men of rape, there are simultaneously lots of women who are legitimately raped but keep mum about it? Maybe, but I'd like to see some evidence for as much before putting any stake in the idea.

Jokah Macpherson said...

I find it weird that no one ever calls out the 1 in 5 assertion based on their own experience. If this is really true then you should know several women that have been raped if you went to college (assuming its independent of other factors, which tends to be an implicit assumption in the propaganda).

If you don't know any and still want to believe, maybe you live in a bubble. Try checking with distant acquaintances to see if they know a bunch of girls who have been raped.

If this still fails the hypothesis test, either you are truly extraordinary or maybe the numbers are off.

I personally know zero people who have been raped (or at least who have told me or for whom other people have told me). Granted, I run in pretty churchy, sheltered social circles, but you have to remember that every man, including you and me, is a potential rapist.

BehindTheLines said...

Anecdotally, I know several people who have been raped (or at least claimed to have been), and my social circle is not the ghetto. The 1 in 5 number is probably high, but 1 in 100 seems low to me. There are many reasons why a genuine rape might not be reported.

That said, anyone accused of rape has the same rights as anyone accused of any other crime. The left seems to think, "innocent until proven guilty, unless it's rape".

Dan said...


The root problem is that sex outside of marriage is utterly dysfunctional.

Human sexually is fundamentally based on differences of course. Men want to plant their seed and get a huge thrill from the act itself, while women get less of a thrill from the act. To make it a fair trade, a man would need to provide extras (security, support, protection, etc.) This imbalance is reflected in the fact that in prostitution, men pay money to even things out.

Non-marital sexuality robs women of their side of the trade. It is pleasure for pleasure, and that is a rip-off for women.

So they are understandably pissed off because they are getting a bad deal, but feminism doesn't let them get at the root of the problem. In fact, by its insistence on the false premise the men and women are the same, it blocks women from even understanding what is happening.

Women who label all sorts of non-rape as rape are right that they are being ripped off. With feminism on their minds, good luck to them figuring out why.

Audacious Epigone said...

BTL,

When I was in high school I remember hearing about a cousin of mine in college who had been raped (supposedly). I remember hearing about it for a couple of days and then my mom going silent on it, and later finding out that the story was more nuanced than we'd first been told. I'd forgotten about it until a couple of weeks ago. I need to find out from my mother what the details were.

Dan,

That's a really lucid explanation. Thanks!

silly girl said...

I know two people who claimed to have been raped. One man and one woman. The man was a teen at the time and was a basket case after the attack. The woman was a college student at the time of the attack and said that the shower she took immediately after eliminated the evidence. I believe neither resulted in convictions. Both were aggravated attacks by strangers. Both were immediately reported to police. I know thousands of people and these are the only two in nearly fifty years of living that I personally know of. The 1 in 125 seems believable in the general population.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how useful the 1 in 5 number is to the Narrative. Generally those promoting the Narrative wish to sow enmity between the sexes as a means to population control.

Vincent Castrillo said...

Sometimes, I simply judge people by the sniff test if you will. For instance if you're math skills and general perception of reality are so weak that a wild figure or observation thrown out there doesn't give you immediate pause, I assume you are a sheep.

Think about it. The loudest yellers of 1 and 5 are almost all college "educated". Now consider my alma mater, Vanderbilt. There were essentialy 5-6K undergrads running around at any given time. Add another 2-4 for grad,med, etc. That's 10K. More than half are women but let's say 5,000 females. What kind of idiot thinks that1,000 of those women have been raped? Even if we presume that it means "in their whole lives" and not the "at college" meme.

Seriously, it's astounding. Women wouldn't leave the house. Armed chaperones would go everywhere with women in packs. A war torn brothel made of captured tribeswomen in Rwanda has a lower rape rate.

Consider even the 1 in 125 rate for college kids you mention. That's still 40 rapes for that student body over their college careers. I can't think of a single girl that was raped at school or even heard of one in the 8 years I was there. Heck until this sensational rape thing with the football team last year, I would have guessed one or two had happened in the last decade.

Now if we consider state schools or the population at large this figure becomes more palatable and one would not be an idiot for considering it reasonable.

What isn't addressed and I cannot prove is that I think most rapes happen to children. I have known several women whom this happened to. However forceable rape of a grown women is rare and tends to happen mostly in poorer / diverse areas.

But of course only entitled princesses in college are being raped by the very white guys who in general commit next to no rapes ever. This is narcissism run amok.

White girls want to bask in the warmth of victimhood too. I dread the thought of what happens to the world when white men get the same idea. Or perhaps wait in hope....

Kodhambo said...

"Multiplying the 10,237 by 4 "

Why multiply by 4?

Why cannot we use 31,301/5.1 Million and use 1 in 160?