A couple of immediate reactions to mid-term congressional exit polling:
- Non-Asian minorities (NAMs) are natural Democrats. Consequently, Republicans always get trounced among blacks. Scarcely any more surprisingly, regardless of whether Republicans go the McCain route and play the role of open borders champion or garner the support of restrictionist paladin Kris Kobach, they lose big among Hispanics.
The behavior of Asians, the nation's other fast growing minority population, are more difficult to predict. As recently as 1996, this truly diverse category backed the GOP. This time around, they almost split evenly, marginally favoring Democrats 52%-48%.
Speculating audaciously, Asians--especially East Asians--tend to be conformists, so I'd guess they'll go with whatever the conventional expectations are. Not surprisingly, I suspect the average Asian-American is more culturally Marxist now than he was 20 years ago. Northwestern Euros seem to be the only people on the planet really capable of sustained political dissonance. If Asians join the American right, they'll have to be led there. Not sure how to make that happen and stick once it has.
Steve Sailer suggests Republicans make every effort to unapologetically cast the Democrats as the party of blacks, since Asians--even more so than whites and Hispanics--tend to be social pussies who yield to blacks in social situations even more feebly than whites or Hispanics do. They distrust blacks more than members of other races distrust blacks. Republicans more-or-less indirectly employed the strategy this time around, with virtually every Republican congressional aspirant, including most incumbents, letting no opportunity to tie their Democratic opponents to Obama go unexploited.
- Steve has been pointing out for several years now that the marriage gap is more informative and influential than the gender gap is. He's correct of course, as the latest exit polls make explicit. There are a couple ways that evince as much. For one, Republicans got 56% of the married vote to 41% of the unmarried vote, a gap of 15 points. Democrats got 53% of the female vote and 43% of the male vote, a gap of only 10 points. The marriage gap is 50% larger than the gender gap is.
More blatantly, Republicans won among both married men (60%-38%) and married women (53%-46%) but the Democrats won among both unmarried men (51%-47%) and unmarried women (61%-37%). Married men and women on one side of the political divide and unmarried men and unmarried women on the other side sounds like it's characterizing a marriage gap more than any putatively crucial gender gap.
- Parenthetically, as of this posting exit polling data from Alaska had yet to be released, but in Florida support for the legalization of medical marijuana passed overwhelmingly among those under the age of 30, 81%-19% (and comfortably overall, around 60%-40%). Although there is more of an enforcement-bureaucracy complex to overcome in the case of drug legalization than there is in the case of same-sex marriage, like mores on that 'hot button' issue, rapid change is coming on the drug front. Effective libertarianism is on the rise, even if that party label is a political non-starter.