Tuesday, November 04, 2014

A few brief remarks about 2014 mid-term congressional exit polling

A couple of immediate reactions to mid-term congressional exit polling:

- Non-Asian minorities (NAMs) are natural Democrats. Consequently, Republicans always get trounced among blacks. Scarcely any more surprisingly, regardless of whether Republicans go the McCain route and play the role of open borders champion or garner the support of restrictionist paladin Kris Kobach, they lose big among Hispanics.

The behavior of Asians, the nation's other fast growing minority population, are more difficult to predict. As recently as 1996, this truly diverse category backed the GOP. This time around, they almost split evenly, marginally favoring Democrats 52%-48%.

Speculating audaciously, Asians--especially East Asians--tend to be conformists, so I'd guess they'll go with whatever the conventional expectations are. Not surprisingly, I suspect the average Asian-American is more culturally Marxist now than he was 20 years ago. Northwestern Euros seem to be the only people on the planet really capable of sustained political dissonance. If Asians join the American right, they'll have to be led there. Not sure how to make that happen and stick once it has.

Steve Sailer suggests Republicans make every effort to unapologetically cast the Democrats as the party of blacks, since Asians--even more so than whites and Hispanics--tend to be social pussies who yield to blacks in social situations even more feebly than whites or Hispanics do. They distrust blacks more than members of other races distrust blacks. Republicans more-or-less indirectly employed the strategy this time around, with virtually every Republican congressional aspirant, including most incumbents, letting no opportunity to tie their Democratic opponents to Obama go unexploited.

- Steve has been pointing out for several years now that the marriage gap is more informative and influential than the gender gap is. He's correct of course, as the latest exit polls make explicit. There are a couple ways that evince as much. For one, Republicans got 56% of the married vote to 41% of the unmarried vote, a gap of 15 points. Democrats got 53% of the female vote and 43% of the male vote, a gap of only 10 points. The marriage gap is 50% larger than the gender gap is.

More blatantly, Republicans won among both married men (60%-38%) and married women (53%-46%) but the Democrats won among both unmarried men (51%-47%) and unmarried women (61%-37%). Married men and women on one side of the political divide and unmarried men and unmarried women on the other side sounds like it's characterizing a marriage gap more than any putatively crucial gender gap.

- Parenthetically, as of this posting exit polling data from Alaska had yet to be released, but in Florida support for the legalization of medical marijuana passed overwhelmingly among those under the age of 30, 81%-19% (and comfortably overall, around 60%-40%). Although there is more of an enforcement-bureaucracy complex to overcome in the case of drug legalization than there is in the case of same-sex marriage, like mores on that 'hot button' issue, rapid change is coming on the drug front. Effective libertarianism is on the rise, even if that party label is a political non-starter.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Audacious, can you find a data on sexual partners per state? I am curious about relationship between sex availability and the number of rapes per capita. -- szopeno

Anonymous said...

Any idea how Brownback managed to win the Hispanic vote?

Dan said...

I am curious about the Jewish vote. I was surprised when they still pulled 2-1 for Obama in 2012.

Since Obama has ramped up the anti-Israel rhetoric, I would predict that the Dems won an even larger share of the American Jewish vote in 2014, and for that reason :D.

One thing about the culture wars is apparent. Everyone is now on their own because society will not even take a small step to push people away from a path of self-harm.

In terms of success, people with sturdy church groups and cultural groups will gain a larger advantage as broader society provides less moral guidance.

Audacious Epigone said...

Szopeno,

That information is probably available through the Kaiser foundation or the CDC, but I've never looked. I'll look.

Anon,

That looks like a surprising aberration. Not sure what the state sample was, but it looks like the exit poll provider found the numbers too small to break up by sex among Hispanics, so maybe it was just a skewed sample. On the other hand, Brownback is every bit as enthusiastic an open borders advocate as John McCain or Lindsey Graham, so I suppose I shouldn't write off hispandering outright.

It's a reason I voted for him for governor--keep him away from the national legislative process!

Dan,

2-1 for Democrats (65%-33%), just like in 2012. Jews and irreligious whites vote almost identically, incidentally.

Yes, there is no longer much in the way of a unifying cultural group for Americans to associate with, but there are local and religiously affiliated groups that will fill that void just like there have always been.

Dan said...

Re Jewish voters, yes, I should have scrolled down in the link.

It something that Jewish Americans have so little problem with a president that gets along poorly with Israel.

Those who imagine that American Jews are pulling the strings to control America on behalf of Israel could not be more wrong.

Dan said...

One other thing I see in the exit polling:

Without white evanglicals, Republicans would not win as town dog catcher, but do 'values voters' have one enduring legislative accomplishment to show for 34 years of Repub loyalty?

intuitivereason said...

I wonder how much of the 'marriage gap' is simply a combination of other variables already in play.

Age and gender between them ought to cover much of it.

sclop said...

What is AE's political position on marijuana legalization? It seems to have more support in on the left than the right, but it is one of those issues where liberals and libertarians have common ground. If Republicans were to embrace it (or at least lessen their opposition to it), do you think it could attract some younger voters? Also, what is AE's personal opinion on legalization?

Audacious Epigone said...

Dan,

It's bizarre to see the mix of disdain and fury that is directed towards those 'value voters' by neoconservatives of the WSJ/Weekly Standard variety when the latter pretty much drive the party's policy efforts on the support of the former and all the latter have to do in exchange is put up with some innocuous pro-life/pro-marriage rhetoric. Seems like a pretty good deal for the neocons to me.

IntuitiveReason,

Cross-tabs are always useful but usually lacking with exit polling results. The Ipsos-Reuters online interactive database might have exit polling data up from the mid-terms at some point like it did for the 2012 presidential election, but I'm not sure.

Sclop,

I don't have a strong position one way or the other. My instinct is towards what John Derbyshire calls libertarianism in one country (in terms of what the law proscribes or permits, not in terms of what I personally censure or condone). The more functional, homogeneous the state, the less problematic legalization becomes. It's not going to have much of an impact in Vermont. In southern California, otoh, I'm not so sure.

BehindTheLines said...

When you look at voting by age, two things jump out:

1) In general, older voters vote Republican

2) The Boomers are a few percentage points to the left of where you would predict from a line of best fit curve. The Xers are a few points to the right.

Dan said...

Marijuana laws are one more area where smart people knock down barriers that were protective of stupid people.

If I can re-impose barriers on my own children that were removed from society at large, they will outperform their peers. Suck it!

mr_evergreen said...

Perhaps going after the married has alot to do with the family values thing that is going on with Republicans.

As for turning voters against the Black population, I have to say this. I've been on some internet forums and I've noticed immense complaining about Blacks and who they vote for. I have to say this. If one intends to get people to vote Republican by turning them against Blacks, then one has no right to complain when Blacks vote Democrat. If the GOP wants more Black votes, they can start with the church. Last time I checked, Blacks as a demographic are more religious than other demographics(apart from Hispanics), many Blacks are against abortion and gay marriage. Alot of middle class Blacks support school vouchers. However, very few Blacks vote Republican.

mr_evergreen said...

Without white evanglicals, Republicans would not win as town dog catcher, but do 'values voters' have one enduring legislative accomplishment to show for 34 years of Repub loyalty?

All the more reason the GOP needs to reach out to more people, and more vigorously. Rand Paul knows this. Things are changing.