Friday, October 03, 2014

The Stoopid Party, New Jersey edition

John Derbyshire got his hands on a campaign support email for and from Jeff Bell. Bell is the Republican challenger for the New Jersey Senate seat currently held by Democrat Cory Booker. Some snippets from the Derb's excerpts:
Dear friend,

I want to wish you a Happy Hispanic Heritage month.

Ronald Reagan once said, "Latinos are Republicans, they just don't know it yet." Maybe that's politically incorrect to repeat in 2014. But I do agree with the premise behind his assertion: if the Republican Party makes the case to them, Hispanics will vote GOP.

But they do have a problem now. Our party has been unwelcoming. Republican members in Congress have refused to consider a path to legalization for those who came here illegally over the years, or an expanded guest worker program that is open to low-skilled workers, not just Ph.D.'s.
Mitt Romney is too much of a restrictionist for Bell's tastes.
I have to say that I fundamentally disagree with [Rush Limbaugh's] assertion that those who immigrate here from Mexico are registered Democrats in waiting. Hispanics in the U.S. have the highest rate of business creation among all ethnic groups — and more than double the national rate. Moreover, they tend to share conservatives' beliefs that life begins at conception and marriage is composed of a husband and a wife.
The Derb has a devastating take down of this naked cheap labor rah-rahing. Now allow me to do my part by throwing my slippers at the beast.

The claim about business creation is bunk. Here's a graphic from a detailed CIS report on the characteristics of immigrants in the US by their countries of origin:


This report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics similarly gives lie to the assertion that Hispanics are business creators. The rates of business creation by race as of 2009, from highest to lowest, runs from whites, to Asians, to Hispanics, and finally to blacks:


Parenthetically, both measures are of self-employment rates, but the difference between someone in charge of an unincorporated business and someone who is self-employed is merely semantic. This is, for all intents and purposes, the most reliable measure of business 'creation' available, even though it actually inflates the Hispanic figures since the rate of business incorporation among non-Hispanic whites is more than double the rate among Hispanics.
Moreover, they tend to share conservatives' beliefs that life begins at conception and marriage is composed of a husband and a wife.
The latter is blatantly false. The GSS shows that the percentage of Hispanics who disagree/strongly disagree with the assertion that "homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another" is 38.6%. In contrast, the percentage of non-Hispanic conservatives who disagree/strongly disagree is 62.8%.

Bell does correctly point out the pro-life overlap, with 73.6% of Hispanics expressing the belief that women should not be able to get an abortion for any reason compared to 70.6% of non-Hispanic conservatives. But blacks are more pro-life than the nation at large is, too, so... I suppose they're natural Republicans as well!

Perhaps the most risible trope Bell employs is this one:
I do agree with the premise behind his assertion: if the Republican Party makes the case to them, Hispanics will vote GOP.
The argument is that if not for it's hesitancy to go all-in for open borders, the GOP would own the Hispanic vote because Hispanics are natural Republicans.

Fortunately for those of us with empirical inclinations, the 2008 presidential election gave that theory a superb real-world test. John McCain was then and still remains today the single most recognized champion of 'comprehensive immigration reform' on the Republican side. Hispanics merely had to vote for him and, as the leader of not only the Republican party but of the entire country, he would've been able to lead his party away from restrictionism and towards open borders. On all the other conventional issues of the day, McCain was clearly more conservative than Obama, so it should've been a no-brainer for all those naturally Republican Hispanic masses.

The result, of course, was that McCain got walloped among Hispanics, 31%-67%. Mitt Romney--who, while an eager supporter of increasing immigration among the highly skilled, who was endorsed by illegal immigration pugilist Kris Kobach, actually took the toughest line on illegal immigration among the Republican field in 2012--lost Hispanics by a similar margin of 27%-71%.

Contrary to Bell's blathering, this is because Hispanics--with high family dissolution and out-of-wedlock birthrates, low educational attainment, high poverty and welfare usage rates, affirmative action eligibility, etc--are not natural Republicans at all. They're natural Democrats.

Jeff, there's a reason all of your political and ideological opponents are so eagerly urging you to take exactly the position on immigration that you've taken, and it's not because they have your political well-being at heart. If you're not smart enough to understand that, you shouldn't be legislating on our behalf.

GSS variables used: YEAR(2008-2012), MARHOMO(1-3)(4-5), ABANY, RACECEN1(1-14)(15-16), POLVIEWS(6-7)

4 comments:

Stupid Does said...

Cory Booker is going to crush Bell.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_bell_vs_booker-5092.html

Bell is a microcosm of the republican outreach strategy. Embracing it guarantees political loss after political loss but at least the establishment saves its worst for others in the party who are against amnesty. Like John McCain Jeff Bell is going to lose with some dignity.

Default User said...

I wonder how many of those business/self-employed are actually a case of employers pretending they are really 'independent contractors as this story describes?

In other words, how many of these entrepreneurs are really just another manifestation of cheap labor tactics?

eah said...

How many of the self-employed Hispanics spend their days mowing lawns after undercutting on price?

Audacious Epigone said...

Stupid Does,

Good. If you're able to vote in a race between and open borders Republican and a Democrat, vote for the Democrat. Demography is destiny. Everything else pales in comparison.

Default User,

Great question. I was under the assumption that a lot of this menial cash labor went unreported, like a teenager's pay for babysitting writ large, but maybe not. A lot of these menial migrants might end up being classified in the BLS as self-employed business owners.

EAH,

Right. The phrase "self-employed" has enormous variation in terms of its societal value, complexity, etc, just like "employed" does.