Friday, April 11, 2014

Percentages of births by race at the state level

Although it doesn't get the same sort of international attention that a Germany or a Japan gets for the putative demographic cratering that it presages, non-Hispanic white (subsequently just "white") deaths are now occur more frequently in the US than white births do. Without net white immigration into the country, the US white population would be declining. In a few years' time it will be, despite the net immigration.

It's proved a herculean task to find annual death figures by state and race and, not being descended from anything supernatural, I haven't been up to the task [Lemmus found this; a bit dated and missing some categories though better than I did]. But what should be quite easy to find--the contemporary percentages of births by race by state--doesn't appear to exist anywhere in the virtual world, either.

Until now, that is! Behold, the following table shows the percentages of births by race (all but the "Hispanic" column being non-Hispanic) and by state in 2011, ranked by vibrancy. This gives a good idea of what the adult demographic characteristics of the United States--if they indeed do remain united--will look like at the mid-century mark (figures add up to less than 100% as negligible "others" are not included). The picture is not complete, of course, since internal and external migration are additional relevant factors. Asterisks indicate insufficient data:

State%Vibrant%Wht%Blk%Hsp%AsnPI
1) Hawaii73.826.22.616.054.7
2) New Mexico71.528.51.755.01.7
3) California71.029.05.750.113.1
4) District of Columbia70.429.649.915.14.2
5) Texas64.235.810.848.74.4
6) Nevada56.643.49.937.57.9
7) Arizona54.345.74.539.13.8
8) Florida 53.746.321.927.93.2
9) Maryland53.446.631.314.47.3
10) Georgia53.246.832.214.64.2
11) New Jersey52.647.414.526.711.0
12) New York50.849.215.523.710.0
13) Mississippi^46.953.141.43.61.1
14) Alaska46.453.63.76.58.3
15) Louisiana 44.955.136.36.12.0
16) Illinois44.855.215.922.55.9
17) Delaware43.656.425.612.84.9
18) Virginia43.556.520.412.47.3
19) North Carolina42.857.222.415.53.5
20) Connecticut41.558.512.222.56.0
21) South Carolina41.258.830.18.71.9
22) Alabama38.561.528.67.81.7
23) Rhode Island38.062.08.422.34.7
24) Colorado37.762.34.527.93.6
25) Washington36.263.84.818.49.9
26) Massachusetts36.064.09.617.28.4
27) Oklahoma35.964.18.513.02.8
28) Tennessee31.168.919.79.12.2
29) Arkansas30.869.217.410.51.9
30) Oregon29.470.62.519.35.6
31) Michigan29.170.917.96.83.4
32) Pennsylvania28.771.313.89.94.0
33) Kansas26.973.16.916.03.2
34) Minnesota26.074.09.16.87.1
35) South Dakota24.975.12.14.31.8
35) Wisconsin24.975.19.09.74.5
37) Nebraska24.475.66.214.12.6
38) Ohio23.376.715.64.62.5
39) Missouri23.176.914.05.52.5
40) Indiana22.477.611.18.72.3
41) Utah20.080.01.014.92.9
42) Idaho19.880.2*15.51.8
43) North Dakota18.581.5*3.2*
44) Wyoming17.882.2*11.6*
45) Montana17.682.4*3.7*
46) Iowa16.383.74.58.23.0
47) Kentucky16.283.88.95.11.9
48) New Hampshire11.488.6*4.24.0
49) Maine7.492.63.0**
50) West Virginia5.994.13.4**
51) Vermont5.894.2***

^ Perhaps surprisingly, perhaps not; the least racist of the majority-white (aka Racist) states

The accompanying visualization (lifted from here) shows the most vibrant states in a deep blue hue, through lighter shades of blue, to teal, and finally shows the most regressive states in a bright green:

Friendly, conventional America is also intolerably white America. Time heals all wounds, however, and these states are only delaying the inevitable.

No other surprises here. As Steve Sailer says, the stuff that's easiest to predict doesn't get many people excited. The Southwest is our future. Currently, 44% of the nation's population lives in states where white births constitute a minority of total natality, with the four big kahunas--California, Texas, New York, Florida--following the example set by the list's authentic kahuna.

The cultural, economic, and social consequences are, I suppose, debatable (something akin to a Mexico/Brazil hybrid is my guess). The political ramifications, however, are clear. When Texas goes purple and Florida has gone reliably blue, it'll effectively spell the end of Republican executive power. When Texas becomes solidly Democratic sometime over the next couple of decades, not even the faintest GOP dream will go uncrushed save for some sort of miraculous political realignment in the upper Midwest transpiring in the interim. One prerequisite for such an outcome is the Republican party becoming the nation's de facto white party. To those unschooled in the byzantine rules of contemporary cultural Marxism, that might seem like a natural role for the country's putatively conservative party to adopt, even embrace. The party's professional marionettes and their Cathedral handlers know much better than that, though.

The aforementioned disclaimer is important, because this is a glimpse of what the US will look like a generation down the road if all immigration stopped tomorrow. That obviously isn't going to happen. We've already crossed the Rubicon. The most restrictionists are able to hope for is that Caesar's march southward can be slowed down long enough for Pompey's natives to--again, miraculously--spring out of the soil.


26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hart: BANG
Cole: It's alright, it's good to see you finally commit to something.

This is all quite fixable except maladies of the mind. The will to die is oft stronger than the will to live. However either decision being made it is more dignified with silence.

VXXC

elsprazio said...

Funny isn't it that New Mexico's presumed enriching diversity does not get much attention from the media?

Anonymous said...

I'm planning to eventually build a subdivision for my descendants in Morgan County, West Virginia. It is 98.3% white and has a population of under 15000. WV's poor economy has protected them from Hispanics so far.

Van said...

If the Census Bureau is the source of the birth data, it is likely incorrect. The Census uses flawed methodology (I believe they oversample urban - and therefore nonwhite - areas).

The CDC performs a more complete and accurate survey, with results released to much less media jubiliation. According to the CDC, nonHispanic white births are still a majority, and the white share has actually been INcreasing.

Audacious Epigone said...

Van,

The data are provided by the Annie E Casey Foundation and don't appear to be further sourced at the site (although there is a snail mail address for inquiries).

Do you have a link for comparable CDC data? These look like birth record totals, not estimates.

Van said...

I have this CDC report bookmarked:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_09.pdf

What I was thinking of looks like the table on page 55: Births by Hispanic origin of the mother, which shows white mothers remaining as the majority.

This could be the issue - some of those white mothers would be giving birth to children by non-whie fathers. And those kids, for Census purposes, are not white. If about 4% of births are to white mothers and non-white fathers, there is your non-white majority.

The table starting on page 65 has data for states and territories.

Van said...

Doing a quick internet search, that would appear to be the issue - different data sets (Census Bureau reporting race of child; CDC reporting race of mother).

So, never mind. The Census Bureau data would be correct.

Audacious Epigone said...

Van,

Thanks. I was wondering why I'd seen conflicting reports on the balance. Non-white rates have slowed more over the last decade than white rates have, but of course the former are still significantly higher than the latter, so it either just happened or will in the next few years.

Steve Sailer said...

How far back can you take this? If you could find, say, 2006 numbers, you might have a trend that would be even more interesting from a real estate investing standpoint.

Steve Sailer said...

You can see why trendspotters are getting excited about Pittsburgh, since it's the center of a big belt of white people.

otsider said...

More like a Venezuela-Nigeria-Pakistan hybrid if the multicultis get their way.

Audacious Epigone said...

Steve,

The data in this form are only available for 2011, unfortunately.

Audacious Epigone said...

Also, an oversight on my part: These numbers exclude premature babies weighing less than 5 pounds, so the black percentages are modestly understated. White and Hispanic premature birth rates are nearly identical, but black rates are higher.

JayMan said...

Great find! It's only too bad I didn't see this earlier.

If it wasn't for the Somalis, I'd say I (well, we) single-handedly moved the percentage of Black births in Maine. :p

Also, mutually complementary:

Colors and Lights | JayMan's Blog

JayMan said...

I've edited the above post to link back to this one.

Now, I'm sure getting county level-data would be nigh impossible, but I'd dare to wager that if you broke certain states apart, such as took out the "New Netherland" part (i.e., the New York City metro area) of New York from the New England part, it'd fall in line with the other Yankee states.

Dan said...

A couple of wonderings....

(1)

In politics, does it have to be everyone against white people? Do Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, etc.: do they all have to vote left? That was very much the case in 2012, but does it remain that way?

(2)

I think that this is as good as it gets for the left. Not because the tide turns politically, but because of bitter reality. In India and Brazil, socialism romps in elections, but what is the point? The public cupboard is bare so there's nothing to hand, and there is barely a middle class to screw, meaning elites would screw themselves with leftism. Leaders don't get to status preen and piss on the right for pleasure, for they are in a perpetual state of crisis.

Leftists must be conservative-ish to try to save their own kingdoms, and what fun is that? The left governors of both New York and Cali had to be fiscal jerks in the last several years, because the numbers needed to add up. Interestingly, they were more fiscally conservative than any Republican could have been. Crime had to be dealt with in a fascist way by Democrat mayors in cities across America in the last couple of decades.

Dan said...

The left can pass laws, but reality has a way of doing its own thing, and the left will have to face this more and more, without scapegoats.

South Africa pioneered gay "marriage" which is a total joke because they are the world leader in corrective rape, meaning the hoi polloi missed a memo or two. Left-preening New Yorkers are getting noticed for their world-leading segregration, which is a tad intractable, considering that most New York whites spent millions apiece to purchase their segregration.

Anonymous said...

Yeah from my (extensive) experience, upstate NY and even Long Island roughly matches the rest of new england in whiteness.

The city obviously more than swings the balance.

Anonymous said...

Upstate NY and Long Island have many minority areas.

I was surprised at how white Ohio and Pennsylvania look to be staying. Opportunity for the GOP if they don't fuck it up.

Audacious Epigone said...

Jayman,

Personal question that you don't need to answer, but have you thought about how your son will be classified demographically?

Black would probably be to his best advantage. Coming from that parentage AND being able to check the exalted minority box (I know, I'm an intractable whiny dissident rightist) means the stars are his limit!

Dan,

If power in and of itself is the point, than I don't think there is a tipping point.

Anon,

Yes, it is imperative that the GOP turn the German/Nordic states, and the Upper Midwest in particular, red in a hurry if the party has any hope of being competitive nationally.

LemmusLemmus said...

"It's proved a herculean task to find annual death figures by state and race and, not being descended from anything supernatural, I haven't been up to the task."

Generally speaking, I would think those are available from the CDC mortality files. A quick Google search brings this -

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/gmwkh10.htm

- though this page has data only up to 2007. Surely that can't be the latest?

Audacious Epigone said...

Lemmus,

Thanks, that's better than what I found, though it doesn't include Asians or Native Americans.

Bill said...

What you want is easily available going back to about 1990 online. Here is the link:

http://wonder.cdc.gov/

You can get birth rates (by state and race of mother). Maybe you can also get it by race of father---I have not looked, but birth certificates normally have that info. You can get death rates (by state and race of decedent). The tool is slightly annoying to use, but it works. I think that you can get downloads as csv files if you want.

Dan said...

"If power in and of itself is the point, than I don't think there is a tipping point."

That is just it. All along, the left has imagined that its enemy is the right. Its enemy is not the right. Its enemy is reality itself.

Wealth and growth cannot be manufactured out of thin air. Equality cannot be manufactured out of thin air. There are rules of reality and the U.S. machine works a certain way. If you want to have any hope of not wreaking the machine you are very constrained.

Power is not just a function of winning. If your goals are unreachable because they contradict reality, you just look increasingly like a fool.

As I see it, the present political success of the left in America is like the early US military success in Iraq. In retrospect that was the high point. Not because the Baathists rose again; they stayed beaten. But because you have a huge mess and people just get more cynical.

The leftist religion itself, which is of eternal worldly progress, is dying on the vine.

Audacious Epigone said...

Bill,

Perfect, thank you!

Anonymous said...

Gives a new meaning to "Californication"