Friday, February 15, 2013

Baby-making among non-whites by political orientation over time

Marshaling evidence from the GSS, Jayman has thoughtfully and diligently looked at white fertility rates by political orientation over time. The tendency for conservatives to be more fecund than liberals extends at least as far back as the cohort of people born in the 1920s, and it has become more pronounced since then. Jayman argues this presages a future in which whites become, on average, increasingly conservative in their political outlooks. Given the partial heritability of political orientation, this is a plausible assertion (at least in a relative sense--the political ratchet seems almost inexorably to always turn to the left, with the consequence that oftentimes what was leftist a generation ago is considered mainstream today and what was conservative a generation ago is viewed as being totally beyond the pale today).

I've wondered, though, if the same argument applies to non-whites*. The following graph shows the mean number of children among liberal, moderate, and conservative non-whites by range of year of birth. For consistency, I used the same birth cohorts and years of survey participation as Jayman did:

Like whites, conservative non-whites have been outbreeding liberal non-whites for nearly a century now, yet it hardly seems obvious that non-whites have moved to the right (absolutely or relatively) over the last several decades, nor does it seem a prudent to bet that they will in the future. And the social-versus-economic angle doesn't hopelessly confound here--non-whites are moving to the left on social issues, not just on economic ones.

This epigone isn't an augur so I won't prognosticate about the trajectory of non-white political orientation in the future. I merely hope (though I'm not optimistic) that the political beliefs of tomorrow are recognizable by their ideological flavors rather than by the race and ethnicity of the person espousing them.

GSS variables used: COHORT(1883-1909)(1910-1919)(1920-1929)(1930-1939)(1940-1949)(1950-1959)(1960-1969)(1970-1979), YEAR(1972-2010)(1985-2010)(1993-2010)(2002-2010)(2006-2010), POLVIEWS(1-3)(4)(5-7), CHILDS, RACE(2-3)

* Referring here to those who selected either "black" or "other" from the three choices "white", "black", and "other".


Dan said...

The problem with the notion that 'the religious shall inherit the Earth' and usher in conservatism is that leftism is also a religion.

For instance acceptance of 'transgenders' as having authentically changed genders when such a thing is scientifically impossible, gender being inscribed indelibly in the DNA of every single cell, is an artifact of leftist religion that is trivially false. This and a hundred other things are unexamined dogma.

Leftism is not inevitable, since so much of it is plainly false.

Leftist towers collapse on their own, not because a better conservative debater shows up but because reality just is what it is.

Dan said...

I don't see a broad leftward move if you look at the whole world.

Communist regimes once dominated half the globe. Atheism was enforced brutally in all of these places, ownership of anything at all was brutally punished and 100 million were killed. Then in a flash it all collapsed and now all of the former communist countries are the most conservative countries in the world (China, Russia, Eastern Europe).

Even in the US some things have gotten more conservative. Crime fighting has become powerful after an insane leftist bender of murderer-love in the 1970s. Unions are weaker than ever, having wrecked company after company. Teen pregnancy and divorce are down because people avoid the screwed-up lives they see around them. Abortion is down.

All over America achievement standards are suddenly being set according to race now, an unimaginable and massive official acknowledgement of reality. A majority of states actually.

Segregation rules in the heart of liberalism.

Finally, in the economic realm, Obama is running all out toward a brick wall with his eyes closed and a smile on his face.

We don't even have to wonder whether a crisis is in store. The reality is what it is. Total victory by the left means they will have their names on this.

The way out is if for our leftist overlords to get religion, which actually means adopting the policies of their beaten foes. There are plenty of recent examples of this:
- Obama's state of the union emphasized better family formation. Gee, a little late, heh.
- Strong crimefighting by Democratic big city mayors.
- California's Gov. Brown implementing hard cuts in social spending. New York's Gov. Cuomo implementing similar hard cuts.

The decline of the West and diminishing of America's standing is something our new overlords must come to grips with. Strong conservative currents flow in a Europe facing hardline Islam and economic disaster. This is new conservatism sprouting on leftist soil.

Dan said...

The income gap is as large as it has been in measured history, soaring in the Obama years.

The left wing information disconnect is as large as it has ever been in American history. The left is so badly disconnected from economics and human nature that it routinely achieves the opposite of its goals.

The left is winning many intellectual battles but not the battles over reality. Those battles are won by, well, reality.

Assistant Village Idiot said...

I am not fully persuaded, Dan, but I take your point and agree that the picture is at least mixed. It does very much depend on what one calls conservative and liberal (other than the circular self-identification). Perhpas there are some traits that are usually conservative across decades, regardless of temporary expression. I'll scratch my head over that.

I am curious about a related red-blue question: the violent crime rate by county instead of by state. Any of you seen that one? Given that all areas are in fact purple, there is nonetheless some value in the red-blue divide.

JayMan said...

One key limitation here is that I'm not really sure that the liberal-conservative dichotomy applies to non-Whites, or, even to non-Germanic Europeans.

The beliefs of modern liberalism seem to be a fairly unique feature of NW Europeans, hence, why I tend not to apply these labels to other groups.