Saturday, January 12, 2013

Iowa has been a safe place to live for a long time

Hail found CDC data on white homicide rates by state from 1960. Comparing those with rates from the 2000s* yields a statistically significant positive correlation of .74. More than half of a state's modern white murder rate is 'explained' by what its white murder rate was a couple of generations ago. Everyday things change but basically they stay the same.

* Excluding DC, for which contemporary data appears to be erroneous, and Florida, for which figures on homicide by race aren't publicly available.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chicago is pretty safe if you are white. In 2011 there were 432 murders but only 20 victims were white. 20 out of 2.7 million. That is a rate like Sweden.

Steve Sailer said...

I'm fascinated by how Florida just doesn't bother telling the feds how many murders get committed in the state.

My impression from Hail's numbers by state was that there was a fair amount of convergence in white homicide rates over the decades. The 1960 numbers look like Albion's Seed, while your 2000s numbers look like more blended populations.