|Group||'08 advantage||'11 advantage||Change '08-'11|
|High school or less||1||17||16|
|Less than $30k||15||4||19|
Despite putative frustration with the Obama administration's 'lack of action' on "comprehensive immigration reform" and the national Republican party's leadership continued obsession with "reaching out" to Hispanics, Hispanic support for Democrats has actually solidified a bit in the last three years. And despite Cornell West's inability to see why blacks would support the president, the vast majority still do (not at all surprisingly). As a gentile, I never feel as though I have much of a grasp on Jewish psychology, but the easy explanation for a substantial slackening in Jewish support for Democrats is the Obama administration's continued strained relationship with Israel.
The big story concerns whites, especially younger and less affluent ones, who have shifted significantly towards the GOP during Obama's presidency. The hipness of hope and change that memorized a few years ago has given way to the realities many white 20-somethings face, having moved back into their childhood bedrooms with little prospect of being able to get out from under a boatload of college loans anytime soon, having to compete with an expanding pool of low-skilled labor for even entry-level work.
The Sailer strategy is going to be a focal point of an upcoming NPI conference in Washington DC, but pithily, it directs the Republican party to structure itself and strive towards policies that benefit its white base rather than be leftist-lite by pandering to groups naturally antagonistic towards it and paying homage to the supposedly legion (but never articulated) benefits of diversity.
Notice how whites of both sexes and all ages and educational and income levels currently back the GOP. Even in the Northeast, the one region of the country where the majority of whites have consistently voted Democrat for decades, white support is now split.
By bringing attention back home and away from nation-building efforts in the sandpits and teetering peaks of the third-world, the "debt crisis" and the rapid growth in deficit spending have thrust Republican legislators into Sailer strategy leadership roles, even if the tactics they are employing are not explicitly acknowledged (and I'm not sure Steve recommends Republican leaders doing so even if the GOP were to embrace his strategy).
Federal government spending in the US results from resources largely being taken from whites and disproportionately given to non-whites. When times are tough economically and non-beneficiaries of government largess perceive themselves to be suffering, the insistence on protecting those benefiting from that largess (whether it be through direct welfare payments or through employment in cushy government jobs that are disproportionately held by blacks) has the consequence of pitting whites against non-whites. Further, whites have relatively greater affinity than NAMs do for programs the Obama administration has shown the greatest willingness to give a haircut to, like NASA and Social Security.