Wednesday, November 02, 2011

White, black, and Hispanic birth rates by state

In the comments of a previous post, I wondered to what extent intra-state birth rates correlated across racial groups. That is, in states where white fertility is high, are black and Hispanic fertility rates also high?

I am unable to find birth rates broken down by race at the state level, but the Kaiser Family Foundation (which maintains a fantastic, data-rich website) does provide live births by race at the state level with data as recent as 2008 and accompanying data from 2009 on population by race at the state level. From that, I was able to compute birth rates per 1,000 people for whites, blacks, and Hispanics in each state*. For the handful of states with insufficient data on black population sizes, the US Census quick facts page is used as a supplemental.

Turns out the correlations are pretty weak: White and black birth rates correlate at a statistically insignificant .14, white and Hispanic birth rates at .27, and black and Hispanic birth rates at a statistically insignificant (.03).

White birth rates (map here) are highest in the Rocky Mountain states and the Midwest, middling in the South, and lowest on the coasts. The one seeming outlier is Hawaii, which shows the highest white fertility rate of any state in the country. Hawaii's population is not young (although I'm not able to find age broken down by race, and a majority of Hawaii's population is Asian or Pacific Islander), so I'm not sure if this is the result of a data transcription error, or if the relatively large percentage of Hawaii's whites who are in the military has something to do with it. Hawaii's overall birth rate is tied for ninth highest in the nation, and its black and Hispanic birth rates are also correspondingly high, so it might be accurate. Far less surprisingly, Mormon Utah comes in at #2.

Black birth rates (map here) are highest in Upper Midwestern states where blacks receive large welfare distributions relative to whites compared to black/white welfare recipient rates in other states. I'm bemused by Maine's high rate, only being able to point out that numbering fewer than 14,000, the black population there is extremely small. The South, where the largest share of the country's black population is concentrated, in contrast, has relatively lower and more middling rates, while birth rates for blacks are lowest in Rocky Mountain states and the Southwest.

Hispanic birth rates (map here) are probably the least reliable and also the least geographically consistent due to states with small Hispanic populations not accurately accounting for the sizes of their respective illegal residents, which may partially explain why rates show up as being astronomical in South Carolina. In contrast, states with large Hispanic populations--most notably the border states--have relatively low fertility rates. It should be noted, though, that Hispanic birth rates are generally considerably higher than black and especially white birth rates across the board. Nationwide, the Hispanic birth rate is nearly double the white birth rate.

* The rates are a bit lower than I'd expect based on national figures across the board (about 80% of states come in with a birth rate among whites that is lower than the national average), for reasons I'm not exactly sure of. Take the maps in more for comparative purposes than for exacting fertility rate measurements by race and state.


John said...

Hawaii? Well, I guess if you live in paradise, you have a lot of kids. I remember seeing a study of the happiness level of different states. The happiest states were all "red", except Hawaii.

Superdestroyer said...

A large percentage of the whites in Hawaii are military who are of the age where they have children.

Also, the uncertainty in Hispanic birthrates is probably cause they the differences in classifying Hispanics as Hispanics versus whites.

If the mother's name is Smith-Gomez, does the kid get classified as whites or Hispanic?

Noah said...

This is depressing. What is wrong with white Americans? The policies of the multi-culti Left really are a stealth genocide.

Re: Maine's fecund blacks

A large fraction of that tiny population are Somali refugees.

Steve Sailer said...

Minnesota has a lot of Somali refugees too. (I'm sure they enjoy the climate.)

Anonymous said...

"Minnesota has a lot of Somali refugees too."

Yup. Immigrant blacks have much higher birthrates than blacks whose grandparents were born here.

Anonymous said...

* The rates are a bit lower than I'd expect based on national figures across the board (about 80% of states come in with a birth rate among whites that is lower than the national average), for reasons I'm not exactly sure of

Not to be a wise acre, but the states that have higher rates contribute more to the average.

Anonymous said...

Man, I tell you, West Virginia is looking better all the time. In absolute terms, it gets more attractive as the rest get more repellant.

LOL word verif: liblist

Where is WV on any lib's list?

Anonymous said...

Off Topic


Just to make the point that folks are waking up and you are making a difference. I was discussing population on another blog and noticed that another commenter was willing to use his own identity to talk frankly about race but not in a mean spirited way.

His comment:

Even beyond language and culture, is it really wrong to care more about your own race than another race?

Let’s step back a moment and go right back to the source of such particular concerns. When a couple gives birth to a child, they tend to care about that child in particular much more than any other children. Indeed, hospitals put a great deal of effort into making sure that women go home with the same infants they brought in. After giving birth, a mother and father want to hold the right kind of baby, not just a baby in general. It doesn’t mean the baby down the hall is less human or less valuable, but it most certainly is less loved by the other parents.

The same dynamic is at work with extended family. I care far more for my new nephew than I do for any other baby born in the past few weeks. The dynamic is slightly weaker–I would rightly care more for my own child–but it is still there. Though it weakens as it goes, that dynamic continues to do its work as families become more extended. Though I don’t own a tartan or anything, I have a greater interest in Clan Cochrane than in any other European tribe.

His website:

Audacious Epigone said...


With regards to the kids, I'd guess it's contingent upon how their parents' classify them.


Texas does, but California, New York, and Florida are all quite a bit less than the white national average of 11.3. But you still may be correct.


That's very encouraging to see, and the "race as extended family" tact seems to have the greatest utility for HBD realists.

No Show said...

Increasingly, White birthrates and White children being born might be two different things.

These stats highlight the race of the mother not the race of their children, right?

Audacious Epigone said...

No Show,

Birth rates are from among the population as a whole, and yes, these rates are by the race of the mother.