
This is not to confuse the pace of declines with absolute fertility rates. Hispanics, even in 2009, were still considerably more fecund than non-Hispanics. The following table shows the total fertility rate of women by race in 2007 and also in 2009:

If trends continue at the same pace for each classification (which strikes me as highly unlikely), there will be near birthrate parity, at 50 births per 1000 women, for all five racial groups in 2031--a situation in which the TFR for all groups would be well below what is needed for population replacement to occur.
Thanks to Mark Wethman, who keeps a keen eye on these things, for the heads-up.
3 comments:
There's still the matter of the average age of the mother, though. Lots of white women wait until their late 20s or early 30s before they have a baby, whereas other groups (except Asians) have averages in the low 20s, and lots of teenage births.
Stopped Clock,
Right, though on that front, too, there is some encouraging news--the fertility rate for those 24 and under is falling much faster than the rate for those 25+.
Could be that Europeans were the firsts to be hit by the modern world way of life and, as they enter the modern world, other groups are hit the same?
Urbanization hit hard and force a drop in birth rates.
This is happening in all the world (Africa lag behind).
Could be that, as they were the first to be hit, they will be the first to adapt and will be the first to restart to grow?
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