Monday, November 15, 2010

Tea party support by state

The following table shows net support (% of voters supporting - % of voters opposing) for the tea party movement by state among voters in the 2010 mid-term elections. Exit polling was only conducted extensively in states where the Senate and/or gubernatorial races were at least somewhat competitive:

State
Support
Oppose
Net
1) Texas
48
25
23
2) Arkansas
43
23
20
3) Indiana
46
27
19
4) West Virginia
40
24
16
4) Ohio
43
27
16
4) Arizona
46
30
16
7) Kentucky
43
28
15
8) South Carolina
43
29
14
9) Missouri
41
28
13
9) Louisiana
42
29
13
National
41
30
11
11) New Hampshire
41
32
9
12) Colorado
41
34
7
12) Florida
39
32
7
14) Wisconsin
37
32
5
15) Illinois
36
32
4
15) Pennsylvania
39
35
4
15) Iowa
36
32
4
18) Nevada
38
35
3
19) Oregon
36
36
0
20) California
34
35
(1)
20) New York
36
37
(1)
22) Washington
37
40
(3)
23) Connecticut
35
42
(7)
24) Delaware
35
45
(10)
25) Hawaii
26
37
(11)
26) Vermont
24
43
(19)

Nothing surprising here. The correlation between McCain's share of the vote in '08 and support for the tea party today is a nearly perfect .89. The phenomenon is a battle for the 'heart and soul' of the Republican party--there are very few leftists joining the cause.

What is remarkable is how the perceptions of the tea party compare with those of the two major parties. The following table shows net support for the tea party and each major political party, this time by net support for Democrats. Because the questions regarding the parties asks about favorability/unfavorability while the tea party question asks about support/opposition, it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's close. For whatever reason, exit pollsters in five states did not inquire about feelings towards the two parties, so those states are omitted:

State
Dem
Rep
TP
California
+6
(28)
(1)
Illinois
+6
(19)
+4
Delaware
+5
(20)
(10)
Washington
+4
(23)
(3)
Pennsylvania
(1)
(13)
+4
Oregon
(3)
(33)
+0
Wisconsin
(6)
(4)
+5
West Virginia
(7)
(4)
+16
National
(8)
(12)
+11
Colorado
(10)
(18)
+7
Florida
(11)
(8)
+7
Iowa
(11)
(2)
+4
Nevada
(11)
(12)
+3
Ohio
(11)
(12)
+16
Missouri
(15)
(5)
+13
Kentucky
(16)
+2
+15
Arkansas
(17)
+8
+20
Indiana
(18)
+5
+19
New Hampshire
(18)
(1)
+9
South Carolina
(19)
+9
+14
Texas
(19)
+5
+23
Arizona
(23)
+1
+16

In no state does the GOP receive greater support than the tea party. I've resigned myself to the idea that I will be voting without exception for hopeless third party presidential candidates for my entire life, but if ever the ground seems fertile enough for a perennial third party to take root, now is that time.

Even in some competitive blue states like Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Wisconsin, the tea party does better than Democrats do. Even in solidly Democratic states like California and Illinois, feelings towards the tea party are decidedly mixed. Christine O'Donnell, like Sarah Palin, appears to have a knack for really grating some people. Consequently, opposition to the tea party is especially high in Delaware relative to its political profile.

2 comments:

silly girl said...

I think this is why libs hate the tea party more than they hate Republicans. Plenty of Republicans are de facto liberals like Bush.

Audacious Epigone said...

Silly girl,

Yes, and they seem ever eager to pin the tea party movement as something socially right, whatever that manifestation happens to be--mostly insinuated racism so far, but you know they'd love the tea party movement to be associated with the pro life movement or something along those cultural lines.