Saturday, January 02, 2010

TUJ parses fertility data and makes remarkable discovery

Writing for OneSTDV's blog, The Undiscovered Jew takes a look at fertility rates by age range and finds that from the age of 30 onward, IQ and white fertility correlate positively at the state level. That is, the smarter the state, the more fecund its 30+ population. The conclusion TUJ arrives at from this is that efforts to extend the span of viable female reproductive capacity using artificial reproductive technologies are the answer to below-replacement white fertility. Aubrey de Grey's drive to retard (and ultimately reverse) the aging process promises to carry eugenic consequences with it.

In the comments, Richard Hoste points to the same concern Francis Galton had 150 years ago; if one group breeds earlier than another group does, even if the total fertility rate of each group is identical, the early-breeding first group will outnumber the late-breeders of the second group.

A simple thought experiment demonstrates this. If hobbit couples have two children at age 20 and elf couples have two children at age 40, their TFRs (2.0) are identical. However, after 80 years, there are ten hobbits but only six elves. At age 20 (year 20), the first generation of hobbits have two kids. Twenty years later (year 40), their second generation offspring have two kids of their own, just as the first generation of elves are finally having their children. So after 40 years, we have two 40 year-old hobbits, two 20 year-old hobbits, and two newborn hobbits, to just two 40 year-old elves and two newborn elves.

But total population share and realizing replacement fertility are two separate (albeit related) issues. TUJ shows that if the fertility of white women in their late thirties doubled and fertility of white women in the early forties increased eightfold, without any other change in the fertility rates of white women under the age of 35, total white fertility would be above replacement. Although the white population would not grow as fast as the Hispanic population, the absolute number of whites would accrete over time. The formidable problem of an inverted age pyramid already facing Russia and Japan, with Western Europe not far behind, would thus be averted.

The desire for well-adjusted, industrious young people to get to work making babies instead of spending their twenties and thirties obtaining academic and then professional success may be hopelessly quixotic. A la Idiocracy, it's not going to happen on a largescale among those of European descent. For those concerned about the sustainability of white populations, extending female reproductive spans and getting the aging clock to tick in a counterclockwise direction are two of the most potentially fruitful strategies available.

8 comments:

bgc said...

"For those concerned about the sustainability of white populations, extending female reproductive spans and getting the aging clock to tick in a counterclockwise direction are two of the most potentially fruitful strategies available."

Well, yes, but...

There has been zero progress toward either of these ideals - and looking at the pathetic and declining record of medical innovation over the recent few decades, I would say that there is virtually zero chance of either of these happening before the decline of the West finally glugs science down the plughole of history.

The biggest problem is that the Western liberal elite do not want to be fertile, because they hate their culture and want it to be subordinated.

They hate their culture because they reject original sin in themslelves and other well-meaning individuals and victim groups, and instead project all evil onto their culture.

US libertarians essentially ignore US cultural evil on the basis (correct) that it is not as bad as other places - this gives libertarianism its psychopathic quality. And atheism makes libertarians too selfishly hedonistic to risk having children.

US liberals focus on US cultural evils such that they want unattainable cultural perfection - or else self-destruction. This is why liberals are culturally suicidal.

Arguably, the most hopeful scientific future would probably be if the fertile intelligent Mormons reach a tipping point in the US ruling elite before the country is in too big a mess for them to salvage.

Otherwise, the best hope is the break up of the USA into states or alliances of states - a few of which may be decent places, at least for a while.

A snapshot of the US future can be seen at:

http://sdt.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/online/sdt_at_paa2007.pdf

Vicioussss said...

Yes, but who's going to want to have sex with women over 35? ;)

I think extending age of fertility is insufficient. Technology to make 35 year olds look like 25 year olds must come hand in hand with it.

The Undiscovered Jew said...

In the comments, Richard Hoste points to the same concern Francis Galton had 150 years ago; if one group breeds earlier than another group does, even if the total fertility rate of each group is identical, the early-breeding first group will outnumber the late-breeders of the second group.

Galton was talking about how many children women would have over their entire reproductive lifespan - the data I am using, the 2002 CDC data, is only for ANNUAL birthrates!

Regarding ANNUAL birthrates, it does not matter if Group A has children earlier than Group B *Each Year* as long as older women in Group B are picking up the slack with enough babies to keep up with Group A.

Sorry for using Caps Lock, but people were confusing the *annual* fertility with an entire fertility lifespan.

The Undiscovered Jew said...

Technology to make 35 year olds look like 25 year olds must come hand in hand with it.

As far as simple cosmetics goes, resveratrol, low to moderate carb diets, and exercise can slow down aging in women by a good amount.

Refined carbs have probably done more than anything to make American women age much faster than necessary.

Though, I disagree with the Roissysphere consensus that there are few good looking women over the age of 35.

IMO most American women who were attractive in their early 20's and who don't get overweight and get a moderate level of exercise look pretty fine even into their mid 40's.

The Undiscovered Jew said...

There has been zero progress toward either of these ideals - and looking at the pathetic and declining record of medical innovation over the recent few decades,

For clarification, we don't need to slow down the aging process in women. We only need improved ways to donate human eggs to older women because women become less fertile after age 35 due to the poorer chromosomal quality of older human eggs.

Freezing and storing young eggs - either from an egg donor or from a woman who wants to put her own fertility on hold - will solve the problem. Remember, the problem is not the age of the woman's uterus but the age of her eggs.

Audacious Epigone said...

BGC,

Right. But if you're going to donate to something, these causes seem as good as any.

At about 2% of the population, clustered primarily in the mountain west, Mormons have a long way to go before they're able to grab hold of the American levers of power.

Vicious,

I'll take that deal.

TUJ,

No, the women in group B must have more children than women in group A do, if group A consistently starts earlier, even if TFRs are identical for both groups. Returning to my simple thought experiment, think of the first hobbit couple after 40 years. Although they've only had two children of their own, they've caused a total of four to be spanwed compared to the first elf couple's two.

Re: anti-aging, it is important not only that women have viable eggs but also that they have viable energy levels and good physical health (the same goes for men). Having children is going to seem like a more exhaustive undertaking for a 40 yo than for a 20 yo. If that 40 yo feels like she's 30, she's more inclined to reproduce, right?

Obsidian said...

AE,
Ive exhaustively addressed TUJ and other HBDers' concerns along these lines on my blog, The Obsidian Files, find on Wordpress.com. Check it out, filed under TUJ's name and mine.:)

The Obsidian

Audacious Epigone said...

Obsidian,

I'm there, thanks for pointing it out to me. Feel free to cut+paste here as well (that's how much of my blathering on other blogs originates).