It's kind of like Jay Leno vs. David Letterman. Dave pitches his show at viewers with a 105 IQ, while Jay aims his show at 100 (I'm making these numbers up but I wouldn't be surprised if they were pretty accurate). Jay gets bigger ratings.That gets under the skin of several of his readers. It seems accurate to me, though my perception is that it is not that Letterman's jokes are necessarily funnier, it's that his humor is aimed more directly at whiterpeople, who tend to be of above average intelligence, whereas Leno takes more of a shotgun approach.
Following are estimates for the average IQ of white voters by Presidential election, gleaned by converting from Wordsum scores from the GSS under the assumption that the average (mean) score for whites is equivalent to an IQ of 100, to complement the same that was previously done for all voters:
The Republican IQ advantage (disadvantage) by election:
1976, Carter v Ford: 3.5
1980, Carter v Reagan: 2.4
1984, Mondale v Reagan: (0.9)
1988, Dukakis v Bush: (1.7)
1992, Clinton v Bush: (0.1)
1996, Clinton v Dole: 0.6
2000, Gore v Bush: (2.6)
2004, Kerry v Bush: (3.9)
Again, the sample sizes for "other" and to a lesser extent the third party candidates are too small to put much stake in (they remain virtually unchanged when shifting from all voters to white voters only, as third party voters are about as white as the GOP base is, what is often insinuated in national exit polls notwithstanding).
The trend is similar to what emerges when all voters are considered. Republican candidates are increasingly attracting less intelligent whites than Democrats are. The southern Democrats Carter and Clinton disturb the general trend, presumably by pulling more white support from the South than northern Democrats have been able to. The whiterpeople effect has really become pronounced since the turn of the millenium. I suspect when GSS data collection for '08 is made public, we will see the intelligence gap among white voters widen.
That might be unsettling to guys like Half Sigma or myself, but electorally it's not necessarily an ominous trend for the GOP. Stopped Clock makes a thoughtful case for why it is likely inevitable:
I see the declining Republican IQ as an unavoidable consequence of the increasing minority population of the US and the fact that the interests of minorities conflict most strongly with whites who are low on the income ladder rather than high. ...The candidate whose white supporters were less intelligent than his opponent's were was victorious in six of the last eight elections (not including '08, for which GSS data has not yet been gathered). This is not surprising, as self-described moderates and independents are consistently shown to be less educated, less intelligent, and less affluent than partisans or conservatives and liberals are.
This could mean that poor whites are doomed to become everybody's dumpster, and that a party with them as its base will have little room for growth. Or it could mean that the USA will turn into a nation of Alabamas, with 88% of the whites voting Republican and 90+% of the nonwhites voting Democratic. If there is even a modest flow of presently Dem-leaning whites back into the Republican party, it could hold back the Democrats' gains for quite a long time, perhaps long enough to allow differences of opinion to split apart the Democratic coalition. But it might not be possible for the Republicans to win a true majority of whites without adopting many party platform positions that are presently associated primarily with Democrats, such as a pro-choice abortion stance and whatever else happens to be the issue of the day.
GSS variables used: WORDSUM, PRESXX, RACE(1)
* The GSS did not provide an "other" category for the '04 Presidential election.