Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Those on the fence as they enter the booth now breaking consistently for Hillary

++Addition++The equation I came up with was faulty. It was actually a bit less accurate, rather than a bit more accurate, than the polls were. FK still came out on top!


I feel vindicated for having not closely followed the unimportant dog and pony show that has been the Democratic nominating process over the last several weeks. Basic demograhic information made a better augur than did last-minute polls, and blogger Fat Knowledge made an even better prognosticator than that. As Steve Sailer notes, this race is about identity--or the tit-for-tat between the campaigns and the media outlets that facilitate it have netted to nothing.

One notable thing to mention from the exit polling data--Hillary again cleaned up with late deciders. With the lone exception of ethnically anomalous New Mexico (where whites tried to throw Hillary to the curb but Hispanics barely saved her), Hillary's performance among voters who made their decisions sometime in the last three days leading up to the election had been worse than her overall performance in every of the first 25 states where exit polling data are available.

On March 4, with contests in Texas, Ohio, Vermont (which she lost), and Rhode Island, she did a 180, outperforming among the late performers four times in a single day, after only having done it a single time in all the contests that'd come before. Then she did it in Mississippi. And now she has done it yet again in Pennsylvania, beating Obama 59%-41% in the category compared to only 55%-45% overall.


Fat Knowledge said...

Wish I could say that I knew what I was doing, but I just made a guess and it happened to be right.

I did misread the media, which did point out the fact that even with the win there is almost no way that Clinton can win.

If the Democratic head honchos were smart they would tell Clinton that she has to cede if she doesn't win North Carolina so this thing could be over soon.

As for the late breaking voters, I tend to think that this more to do with the kind of people that would wait to the last minute to decide, rather than some news that came out in the last few days that pushed them one way or the other. I mean seriously, who hasn't made up there mind yet after all the media attention?

Audacious Epigone said...


Well, similar proportions (about one in five) of people are at least telling exit pollsters that they didn't make up their minds until spmetime during the last few days prior to voting. It's conceivable to me that many of them get worried about Obama's racialism and that leads them to vote for Hillary. Maybe not, but it is striking to me how that late-deciders have shifted so dramatically to Hillary from March 4 onward.