The point would be to create a strong enough incentive for whites and Asians to believe their children will be better off if they have children exempt from the global program of discrimination. Say the threshold is that people who are 50% or less white are exempt from discrimination, whereas those who are at least 50.1% white are subject to profound discrimination. As a result, I can reason that my reproductive fitness would wind up being greater if I marry someone 100% nonwhite, and have children who are only 50% white and exempt from discrimination. They will have lower IQ than if I’d had white children, but if the discrimination is sufficient as to outweigh the disadvantage of the low IQ, I will be better off having children who are only half white. The 100% nonwhite person, on the other hand, will benefit (and will know it if we’re honest about IQ, as we’re assuming here) by having a smarter child than if she had married another nonwhite.For sake of argument, assume John has an IQ of 100 (to those familiar with him, that's a grossly understated assumption I know, but for conceptual purposes it works). He can either procreate with a white woman, IQ 100, or a black woman, IQ 84. If he goes with the white woman, his kid has an IQ of 100. If he goes with the black woman, his kid has an IQ of 92.
So the affirmative action benefits for the oreo would have to exceed in value what an additional 8 IQ points would net him for John to choose the black woman. For sake of argument, grant that society's preferential treatment amounts to more for the oreo than 8 additional IQ points will grant him. Assuming each person is aware of his own IQ and the IQ of the others, the black woman will want John to choose her. The white woman, however, will not want to be John's mate. She'll be after a black guy for the same reason John wants to mate with the black woman. John wouldn't choose the white woman, anyway. Non-whites are thus able to max out reproduction, with an accessible supply of white mates that far outstrips their demand for white mates.
John's oreo is best off finding another oreo, but would still take a black mate with an IQ of 84, resulting in a child with an IQ of 88, over a white mate with an IQ of 100, resulting in a child with an IQ of 96. The 75%-black, 25%-white kid is eligible for benefits resulting in a boost of more than 8 points, so his 'effective IQ' is higher than the 25%-black, 75%-white kid with an IQ of 96 who is not eligible for preferential treatment.
Thus the blending is underway in the first generation. In subsequent generations, the ideal becomes being 50% white. Being more than 50% white is bad news, with 50.1% white (not entitled to preferential treatment) the worst situation of all. With this price-is-right dynamic, mating pairs will try to get as close to 50% white as possible without going over. Thus they will accept offspring that is 40% white, but not 60% white.
Whites will be bred out of existence. Once someone falls below 50% white (say 40% white), when there is no one who is more than 50% white but less than 100% white around, the white percentage in that line will begin to drop further. Only those who are less than 40% white will see an advantage in mating with the person who is 40% white--those between 40% and 50% white will look elsewhere, to a limited (and dwindling) supply of half-whites.
Those who are 100% white, who could conceivably boost the white percentage back up, will have no incentive to breed with anyone who has any white in them at all--and if one does, it'll be with someone else who is 100% white, not the the 40% white person. A 100% white mating with a 40% white would lead to a bad outcome for both parties, as their offspring would be 70% white with an IQ of 95 and no preferential treatment eligibility. If the 100% white is going to doom his kid to no preferential treatment, he might as well do it with another 100% white so that the kid has an IQ of 100 instead of an IQ of 95.
In a rational world, John's proposed strategy would work. For simplicity, I'm avoiding the varying amount of European blood in American blacks (averaging around 15%-20%) that complicates the computations and I'm not touching the Hispanic category, which really gets dicey. I'm operating under the assumption that cheap genetic testing becomes widely available, and that the whiteness metric is clearly defined--for $100 bucks, you find out, among other things, that you are X% white. I'm also assuming that people act in a rational manner, which isn't always the case when it comes to two becoming one. Nor will downward pressure on average IQ make people any more rational.
I'm also ignoring the desirability premium intelligent non-whites would enjoy from such strong preferential treatment going into effect and keeping Asians out of the picture altogether.
The discussion centered on a global governing body granting preferential treatment on a worldwide scale. But at the national level, the effect of John's strategy would be the same. However, a one-drop rule, absent immigration, would have the opposite effect. Given current TFR rates by race and ethnicity in the US, a one-drop non-white rule for preferential treatment would be a way of keeping the country as European as possible.
With free-for-all mating, the smaller groups inevitably get gobbled up by the largest group, which is only marginally effected by the mixing. We see this clearly in American blacks, who on average, after more than three centuries here, are nearly one-fifth white. American whites, however, are on average less than 1% black. If preferential treatment is given for any nominal percentage of non-white blood, whites would be encouraged to find non-white mates, with those who are only marginally non-white becoming especially attractive. Non-whites (or non-100% whites in this case), from those who are 99% white to those who are not white at all, would conversely try to find the whitest mate possible, since their offspring will already be given preferential treatment due to their own non-white blood.
In any country where the white population is a majority but in the process of becoming a minority due to differential fertility rates, immediate interracial increases with a one-drop non-white rule for preferential treatment is, theoretically, a way to stop the trend, freezing the current total genetic profile and distributing it evenly across the population over time, so that a nation that is 80% white and 20% black moves towards becoming 100% white with a mocha tint.