Friday, April 25, 2008

Encouraging miscegenation could make Western nations either more, or less, European

John Savage recently posted on an older discussion at VFR about William Saletan's assertion that increasing interracial marriage rates--reuniting the human genome--is the quickest way to close the IQ gap. John suggests that rather than requiring a global totalitarian government to force greater interracial birthing, preferential treatment could do the job:

The point would be to create a strong enough incentive for whites and Asians to believe their children will be better off if they have children exempt from the global program of discrimination. Say the threshold is that people who are 50% or less white are exempt from discrimination, whereas those who are at least 50.1% white are subject to profound discrimination. As a result, I can reason that my reproductive fitness would wind up being greater if I marry someone 100% nonwhite, and have children who are only 50% white and exempt from discrimination. They will have lower IQ than if I’d had white children, but if the discrimination is sufficient as to outweigh the disadvantage of the low IQ, I will be better off having children who are only half white. The 100% nonwhite person, on the other hand, will benefit (and will know it if we’re honest about IQ, as we’re assuming here) by having a smarter child than if she had married another nonwhite.
For sake of argument, assume John has an IQ of 100 (to those familiar with him, that's a grossly understated assumption I know, but for conceptual purposes it works). He can either procreate with a white woman, IQ 100, or a black woman, IQ 84. If he goes with the white woman, his kid has an IQ of 100. If he goes with the black woman, his kid has an IQ of 92.

So the affirmative action benefits for the oreo would have to exceed in value what an additional 8 IQ points would net him for John to choose the black woman. For sake of argument, grant that society's preferential treatment amounts to more for the oreo than 8 additional IQ points will grant him. Assuming each person is aware of his own IQ and the IQ of the others, the black woman will want John to choose her. The white woman, however, will not want to be John's mate. She'll be after a black guy for the same reason John wants to mate with the black woman. John wouldn't choose the white woman, anyway. Non-whites are thus able to max out reproduction, with an accessible supply of white mates that far outstrips their demand for white mates.

John's oreo is best off finding another oreo, but would still take a black mate with an IQ of 84, resulting in a child with an IQ of 88, over a white mate with an IQ of 100, resulting in a child with an IQ of 96. The 75%-black, 25%-white kid is eligible for benefits resulting in a boost of more than 8 points, so his 'effective IQ' is higher than the 25%-black, 75%-white kid with an IQ of 96 who is not eligible for preferential treatment.

Thus the blending is underway in the first generation. In subsequent generations, the ideal becomes being 50% white. Being more than 50% white is bad news, with 50.1% white (not entitled to preferential treatment) the worst situation of all. With this price-is-right dynamic, mating pairs will try to get as close to 50% white as possible without going over. Thus they will accept offspring that is 40% white, but not 60% white.

Whites will be bred out of existence. Once someone falls below 50% white (say 40% white), when there is no one who is more than 50% white but less than 100% white around, the white percentage in that line will begin to drop further. Only those who are less than 40% white will see an advantage in mating with the person who is 40% white--those between 40% and 50% white will look elsewhere, to a limited (and dwindling) supply of half-whites.

Those who are 100% white, who could conceivably boost the white percentage back up, will have no incentive to breed with anyone who has any white in them at all--and if one does, it'll be with someone else who is 100% white, not the the 40% white person. A 100% white mating with a 40% white would lead to a bad outcome for both parties, as their offspring would be 70% white with an IQ of 95 and no preferential treatment eligibility. If the 100% white is going to doom his kid to no preferential treatment, he might as well do it with another 100% white so that the kid has an IQ of 100 instead of an IQ of 95.

In a rational world, John's proposed strategy would work. For simplicity, I'm avoiding the varying amount of European blood in American blacks (averaging around 15%-20%) that complicates the computations and I'm not touching the Hispanic category, which really gets dicey. I'm operating under the assumption that cheap genetic testing becomes widely available, and that the whiteness metric is clearly defined--for $100 bucks, you find out, among other things, that you are X% white. I'm also assuming that people act in a rational manner, which isn't always the case when it comes to two becoming one. Nor will downward pressure on average IQ make people any more rational.

I'm also ignoring the desirability premium intelligent non-whites would enjoy from such strong preferential treatment going into effect and keeping Asians out of the picture altogether.

The discussion centered on a global governing body granting preferential treatment on a worldwide scale. But at the national level, the effect of John's strategy would be the same. However, a one-drop rule, absent immigration, would have the opposite effect. Given current TFR rates by race and ethnicity in the US, a one-drop non-white rule for preferential treatment would be a way of keeping the country as European as possible.

With free-for-all mating, the smaller groups inevitably get gobbled up by the largest group, which is only marginally effected by the mixing. We see this clearly in American blacks, who on average, after more than three centuries here, are nearly one-fifth white. American whites, however, are on average less than 1% black. If preferential treatment is given for any nominal percentage of non-white blood, whites would be encouraged to find non-white mates, with those who are only marginally non-white becoming especially attractive. Non-whites (or non-100% whites in this case), from those who are 99% white to those who are not white at all, would conversely try to find the whitest mate possible, since their offspring will already be given preferential treatment due to their own non-white blood.

In any country where the white population is a majority but in the process of becoming a minority due to differential fertility rates, immediate interracial increases with a one-drop non-white rule for preferential treatment is, theoretically, a way to stop the trend, freezing the current total genetic profile and distributing it evenly across the population over time, so that a nation that is 80% white and 20% black moves towards becoming 100% white with a mocha tint.

12 comments:

agnostic said...

Reuniting the human genome is stupid. But what about this --

Instead of transfer of goods and services to poor countries, or poor areas within the West, why not transfer genes?

The good thing about them is that there are plenty to go round, unlike technology. A White guy can send a sperm sample to far-off places and still impregnate and raise the kids of a White woman back home.

This preserves the White community, while replacing the native population abroad with a mixed population. If IQ genes are at all favored, they will spread throughout that abroad population.

So, there would have to be some selection pressure for smarts and industriousness abroad -- gradually revamp the polity and economy along Western norms, according to the gradually increasing average IQ.

The White guy would have to be legally free of raising / providing for the kids abroad -- but that's fine, since smart and hardworking kids pretty much raise themselves, as long as the mother is prepared to put in some effort. Once they go through college, they can support themselves (and mom).

agnostic said...

The other upside to the White father not influencing his kids abroad is that the foreign pop can still maintain whatever aspects of its culture that aren't dependent on having lower average IQ:

Language and dialect, religious practices, celebrations, clothing styles, etc.

If they foreign kids were brought here, they would assimilate and we'd lose that cultural diversity. (It matters to some.)

J. said...

I don't understand this:

"The white woman, however, will not want to be John's mate. She'll be after a black guy for the same reason John wants to mate with the black woman."

Don't you mean, "The white woman, however, will want to be John's mate. She'll be after a black guy for the same reason John wants to mate with the black woman." (emphasis added for clarity)

??

MensaRefugee said...

Amusing.

rob said...

Someone, maybe it was Mensarefugee, once suggested that 'poor single mothers' could use donor sperm from top-shelf men, instead of having kids with the halfwit criminals they live around.

The single moms' get kids who will turn out better on average than otherwise. Society gets the next generation of people who can manage moderately complex jobs.

It might happen, these are women who want to have kids at taxpayer expense. Eventually society will want to have influence over what it subsidizes.

There's been mixing on all continents for a while now. Is there any evidence that genes from say, the Portuguese, are being selected for in Africa? If they aren't, it is reasonable to conclude that reproductive structures don't favor intelligence, and we wouldn't see much long term gains from exporting genes.

Audacious Epigone said...

Agnostic,

So the foreign third-world dad gets cuckolded, but maybe he buys in anyway, with the expectation that the son will provide him with a nice life as he enters old age.

I've not found anything desirable that correlates inversely with IQ (except TFR), so your idea seems good to me.

Saletan's idea was to take the Thanksgiving dinner, throw it into a blender, and distribute the goop evenly to everyone at the table. But we could argue that your idea does, by pushing white sperm all over the place, make the world more genetically homogenous. We're just putting lots and lots of stuffing (my favorite, hehe) on the table before everything goes into the blender is all.

J,

No, the white woman wouldn't want John either. Because if both she and John have IQs of 100, their kid will have an IQ of 100 without preferential treatment. But if she finds a black guy with an IQ of 84, her kid has an IQ of 92 and gets preferential treatment (which, in the 'model', is worth more than 8 IQ points).

The setup encourages whites to mate with non-whites and non-whites to mate with whites for all of them to maximize the IQ (which for even more simplicity let's say is the measure of reproductive fitness) of their offspring. Thus it achieves Saletan's mixing.

Rob,

I'd say it is reasonable to conclude that reproductive structures in the first world don't favor intelligence for a host of reasons, mostly having to do with the lifestyles of intelligent vs unintelligent women.

This report does not make me optimistic about selection for intelligence in poor countries, at least along conspicuous racial lines. I wonder if GNXP has anything on procreation patterns by IQ in various third-world countries. I've not seen anything hard on it.

J. said...

Oops, for some reason I thought John was black.

rob said...

AP, that was an interesting article. Thanx for the heads up.

Especially interesting that fertility took a dive among blacks when apartheid ended. Maybe on average they weren't optimistic about it? Also, African fertility declined way more than non-black, so it is possible to encourage differential fertility.

Eventually AIDS is going to take a big chunk out of African fertility.

Re:mixing and AA, does anyone have numbers on say, how many under represented minorities at top schools are recently mixed? My impression is that it's high, but I don't go to that good of a school.

desmond jones said...

"If he goes with the black woman, his kid has an IQ of 92."

Isn't that a big assumption considering how unpredictable dominance and epistasis are?

Taylor writes:

" Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein note in the their book The Bell Curve even when they are matched for IQ, black women are still five times more likely than white women to have illegitimate children, and two and a half times more likely to go on welfare. And even with matched IQs, blacks are two and a half times more likely to have gone to jail."

If the purpose of interracial mariage is to ultimately lower dysgenic effects in some groups by raising their IQ, it's not at all clear it would be successful.

Audacious Epigone said...

Desmond,

Yes, that is a big assumption made for the sake of simplicity.

The point is to think about how miscegenation might be encouraged by a governmental body. I was trying to portray preferential treatment that more than compensates for the loss to one's offspring from choosing a less desirable mate. Whatever you feel about how objective/subjective that valuation is, if it is nonetheless held stable among people then it gets the thought across.

OverLord said...

Agnostic's idea of sending vials of Caucasian sperm and eggs to third world countries for the purposes of IVF would be especially popular in Latin America.

Mestizos in Latin America highly prize white skin (Just look at the actors on Telemundo and Univision). Because Mestizos are already have European blood in them, it may be easier to convince Mestiza women to have whiter/white offspring than other third world women.

The white upper class in Latin America would have good reasonto want to "whiten" the mestizo population because:

1) "Whitening" will boost the country's IQ, and, by extension, economic performance.

2) "Whitening" will reduce racial tensions because white/whiter mestizos will identify with European civilization.

Perhaps in the future the white upper class will give special welfare/financial/housing incentives to Mestizas to have IVF with European sperm/eggs.

Metizo men may not like this, but my understanding is that Latin American out of wedlock births are up, so, perhaps Mestiza women could be persuaded to have whiter children.

Also, it would be a good idea for the US government to encourage "whitening" for it's Hispanic population for the same reasons it is good for the Euro Hispanic upper class in Latin America.

Audacious Epigone said...

Overlord,

Good points. Making Bolivia look more like Chile sounds desirable to me. Inductivist has shown on multiple occasions that Hispanics even in the US identify more strongly with whites than Asians or blacks, even though they tend towards black norms in terms of illegitimacy rates, high school drop out rates, gang participation, etc. As I understand it, that trend is still stronger in much of Latin America, especially in popular culture.