Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Florida primary confirms racial patterns of Nevada, SC on Democratic side

The Democratic Florida exit polls (msnbc has a very user-friendly listing of exit poll data organized by state and by party) show the same demographic patterns as were seen in Nevada and South Carolina, with Hillary doing better relative to Edwards than she did in his home state.

In Nevada, Hillary took 64% of the Hispanic vote. In Florida, she took 59% of it.

In SC, Obama took 78% of the black vote. In Florida, he took 73% of it. Also in SC, Obama took 24% of the white vote. In Florida, he took 23% of it. The big difference, of course, is that in SC blacks comprised 55% of the participants on the Democratic side, while in Florida they only made up 19%. The country looks more like Florida than SC.

Hillary is going to dominate in the Southwest and the South, and she has control of big Northeastern states like New York. She will be the Democratic nominee.

The Obama hype has been overblown from the beginning. I had wondered why Hillary hadn't earlier tapped into the Jeremiah Wright/Dreams from my Father goldmine to bury him. Well, she never needed to. As attuned to the demographic realities on the ground as I tried to be, I still gullibly began to waver, influenced by the media bunk.

Edwards departure furthers my certainty. Had he hung around through 'Super Tuesday', the delegates he picked up could've been pledged to Obama. Although they are not obligated to vote for their candidate's endorsement once that original candidate bows out (though 10 of Edwards' delegates will be dispersed among Obama and Hillary in accordance to party rules), traditionally they do. Edwards' crop of state delegates that he still 'controls' represent less than half of one percent of the total delegate pool, and so are not a determining factor. Had he bumped that up to 300 or so, they could've potentially meant something.

But what if Edwards endorses Obama, won't the effect be the same as if he'd pledged those future delegates to Obama? No. His supporters back Hillary over Obama by more than a 3-to-2 margin. His endorsement one way or another will not significantly change that.


Justin Halter said...

Great analysis. I was just talking with co-workers today about who Edwards' voters would go to. I appreciate your research to settle that question. I was arguing that Clinton would benefit because Edwards was splitting the white vote, they were saying Obama would benefit because Edwards supporters were young and very liberal. I fully agree with you, it is official, Hillary is The Man, the suspense is now over. You might enjoy my blog post on the Weak Democratic Candidates.

Audacious Epigone said...


Do Edwards' supporters tend to be younger? I think your co-worker was wrong on that one. In Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada he does best among middle-aged voters (30-60). Among older folks, he does either as well or better than he does among the young cohorts. In South Carolina, he does progressively better as the voters get older.

Parenthetically, msnbc is great for quickly accessing the information via this page.

Audacious Epigone said...

Also, I did offer a bit of my own blathering on the post you suggested, or at least I thought I did. But it hasn't yet appeared. Perhaps I've not met your rigorous standards of approval!

Anonymous said...

I think you should recheck the polls in Cali and nationally...they have changed quite a bit.

My guess is people like a person who looks like a winner and the last week Obama has been dominating the media with positive coverage and a large amount of endorsements of all types.

Hillary, tried to play up Florida but it did not work and she has been apologizing for Bill.

The polls show that everywhere Obama is competing Hillary's lead is closing to near (or within) the margin of error. Not good for her and she knows it.

Check out the latest Rasmussen Reports.

Also remember these are not "winner take all" states and Hillary can win California but if not by enough % in the right congressional district she might split the delegates or only get one more.

Super Tuesday will be competitive.

Anonymous said...

I should also say that the Rasmussen Reports is the most recent and all the data came after South Carolina, the other polls showing bigger margins have data before hand.

I'm interested to see polling post-Edwards' exit.

If the trend holds that means a lot of his supporters are leaning toward Obama.