Friday, August 25, 2006

Rationality gap

Without realizing it, Paul Gigot let Arthur Brooks, writing in the open-borders, pro-Republican Wall Street Journal, put forth a devastating case against unfettered immigration from the perspective of the rational Republican pol. Quite simply, the birth trends of US natives, and by extension the demographic trends of US natives, heavily favor the GOP:

According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated, politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given the fact that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections. Over the past 30 years this gap has not been below 20% -- explaining, to a large extent, the current ineffectiveness of liberal youth voter campaigns today.
Leftist professors and MTV still can't keep kids from finding sagacity in mom and dad (sorry Carson, but Pop's genes mean more to Johnny than your blathering does). The diverging birth rate of liberals and conservatives was borne out of the sixties, with the ubiquitous availability of birth control and the hysterical backlash against the bare-footed, pregnant housewife preparing dinner for the breadwinning troglodyte of the house. When the South defected to the GOP in the eighties, the prospects of Republican replenishment and then some stretching far into the future looked impervious.

That was before the US began taking in the Mexican population at such a voracious rate that the Mexican-American population would double every decade. If the current growth rate was to continue for the next twenty years, the size of the Mexican-born population in America would total around 80 million by 2026 (in what year, I wonder, will the Mexican-American population exceed the population of Mexico?)!

The importation of unskilled Hispanics further hurts the Republican Party by accentuating the wealth gap, decreasing housing affordability (which in turn decreases fecundity, further neutering the Republican advantage), depressing the wages of natives (thereby making wealth transfers more favorable in their eyes), increasing the number of people employed in governmental positions to run and maintain prisons (Hispanics are about three times as criminally prone as whites), gather and disperse entitlements (a staggering 31% of third-generation Hispanics use welfare), patrol US entry points and remove intruders (governmental employees don't exactly represent a bastion of Republican support), and so on. That's just the indirect stuff. As Hispanics voted for Kerry at a rate a bit greater than three-to-two, more Hispanic immigration means more voting Hispanics (Democrats) in the future. Apparently, the GOP's self-immolation is a small price to pay in return for whatever it is that Latin America or her interests grant the Bush family.

An update to a well-known political adage: Legalize same-sex marriage, abortion-on-demand, euthanasia, [and restrict third-world immigration,] and in a generation Republicans will rule everything.

(Politics and Religion)

1 comment:

faq said...

There's a big business interest as well as a resignation that Hispanic population is inevitable and so the smartest move is to pander to it. Like the Democratic Party takes for granted blacks, the Republican party takes for granted the white middle class. Maybe they can afford to since the Democrats don't provide much of a choice for the white middle class. But it is the shrinking of the white middle class that is so damaging, and the Republicans are not only acquiescing to it, they're making it happen!