Sunday, April 30, 2006

Zimbabwe: I want you back?

Fast track land reforms have put Zimbabwe's agricultural production on a fast track to disaster. After historical farm owners (virtually all white) lost the protection of the Lancaster Amendment in 1990, Zimbabwe began systematically taking land from whites and redistributing it to wealthy, well-connected blacks. Like affirmative action in the US, this did nothing to help the impoverished masses. So in the late nineties and early years of this decade, a fast track resettlement program was implemented that targeted almost nine million hectacres to be turned over to mostly "landless people". As white farmers were forced out of Zimbabwe, many moved to neighboring countries like Mozambique and hastily turned brush into productive farmland.

An unemployment rate of 80%, an AIDS rate of 25%, staggering GDP shrinkage of 7% per year, and conflict with the West put President Mugabe in a desperate situation. Recipients of the transfer program have not even come close to keeping production up at the rate whites did:

By confiscating the white-owned commercial farms, the government transformed a country that was once the breadbasket of Southern Africa into a net food importer.

And despite good rains there is every prospect of another deficit over the coming season, our correspondent says...

Tobacco used to be Zimbabwe's major export earner but production has fallen from 237m kg in 2000 to 73m kg last year.
That is depressing. Sixty-six percent of Zimbabwe's workforce is employed in agricultural but the country cannot even feed itself.

Mercifully, some of the 4,000 white farmers who lost their land to the kleptocracy may be trying to come back, while those remaining must apply for permission to continue farming:

Buka said 500 white farmers had applied for permission so far.

There's been confusion in recent weeks over unconfirmed reports Zimbabwe had invited white farmers chased from their farms back to the land.

Government ministers have denied this is a dramatic U-turn in Zimbabwe's land reform programme, which has seen up to 4,000 commercial farmers lose their farms in the past six years.

Buka said 'remaining farmers' had to apply for leases to farm, following changes to Zimbabwe's constitution that make all agricultural land required for resettlement state land.
Zimbabweans were better off when their country was called Rhodesia:
Zimbabwe is now poorer than it was at independence in 1980, after it had survived 16 years of sanctions and eight years of civil war.
Zimbabwe's IQ is estimated at sixty-six. The difference between white and black Zimbabweans (~35), then, is likely greater than the difference between Ashkenazi Jews and African Americans in the US (~30). The result of throwing out 4,000 enterprising whites should have been predictable. African independence from colonial rule has been terrible for Africans.

The government is nationalizing all the farmland and then granting people the right to farm it. The white commercial farmers still operating in Zimbabwe are in a tenuous position, as are those who wish to return. It is obvious that Mugabe is not interested in the whites' well being. Whites in Zimbabwe are a quintessential market dominant minority with little political protection. Mugabe will cater to them only in economic desperation. But political desperation will continue to force him to be capricious toward whites. Sad purges like operation "Remove the filth" are coupled with the plundering of wealthy whites who deflect the ire from Mugabe. Why even one thousand white farmers remain is difficult to understand:
The programme has been mired in controversy following allegations ruling party officials had seized most of the best farms, while agricultural production has plummeted.

Meanwhile, in central Midlands province, at least six white farmers have been told to leave their farms in the past two weeks, an official from farming pressure group Justice for Agriculture (JAG) said.
Southern Africa demonstrates the deleterious effects on social cohesion, personal liberties, and economic progress that stem from having an impoverished numerical majority that doesn't control the economy. The closest a majority white US comes to this is the prominence of Ashkenazi Jews in industries such as entertainment, media, and banking/finance. But American goyim are not poor, Jews do not have a lock on any industry, Jews are scarcely distinguishable from other whites, and the US celebrates economic success more than anywhere else in the world save maybe Hong Kong. Rather than deporting our brightest, we praise and admire them.

If current demographic trends continue, however, whites will become a market dominant minority as the wind from the South howls northward. The Hispanic underclass does not appreciate American culture and does not revere white accomplishment. We need a wall.

We should also create tax incentives for wealthy natives to have more children. Not only will this raise the national IQ and narrow the wealth gap, it will make the Western way of life sustainable for future generations. The West is dying--the populations of both Japan and Russia are decreasing in absolute numbers, and in all of the developed world only Israel is above replenishment rate. The planet is being populated by dullards--births per woman by country inversely correlates with national IQ at a higher rate than virtually any other variable. Allowing sharp children to take accelerated classes in primary school and burn through college faster will put more years on the other side for making babies. Also, older folks should put money away for their children and grandchildren in high-return, long-term investments. It's a much better gift than sneakers or some electronic consumable.

(International)

7 comments:

JSBolton said...

Even though a high-IQ minority can, in 'imperialist oppressor' modality, raise the per capita production of a backward country; they run into such resentments from the majority, that, politically, it can't be sustained.
For leftist purposes, nothing could be better than to have immigration policy create Zimbabwes everywhere; but especially in the homeland of the 'fat selfish capitalist exploiter'.
They way you have these issues juxtaposed, it seems clear that you know that years of education is the main depressor of fertility. My solution for that is to have tracking, where, at least by age 4, everyone starts learning phonics, and those who master that year are track 1, those at 5 are 2, 6=3, 7=4, etc. Track 5 would get 5 years of basic phonics drill, arithmetic, etc. until they got it.
Track 1 finishes their BA/BS at 18 or 19, and these could be 1/6 the total. They finish grad school at 20, to 25 for PhD's.
Tracks 1-3 are the upper half of IQ perhaps. Track 2 is out of college
or grad school almost always by 21 say. Track 3 rarely goes to grad school, and tends not to complete 4 years, and is usually out of school by 20. Tracks 4,5 ,6 are still in some kind of HS at 20 perhaps.
Now fertility should be about equal between such classes.

crush41 said...

Well said. NCLB and the reduction of funding for special ed (which includes the 2.5% on the right side of the bell curve) is pushing us in the other direction. Introducing market forces would at least help gifted students take college level courses in their mid-teens, although drilling basic phonetic and arithmetic skills into the heads of the less gifted remains problematic.

Joshua said...

Crush 41,

Ashkenazi Jews in the US have been a market-dominant minority for some time, and you're right that they have not yet suffered the fate of other such minorities in other countries, but I'm far less confident of the future. I have been to old-fashioned "apple pie"-type gatherings from bars to bake sales to auto races, never doing anything to make my own Jewish identity obvious, and I've heard and overheard probably the worst anti-Semitic sentiment in 40 years. It's been bottled up thus far because the economy overall is maintaining things afloat and putting a brake on anti-Semitic actions, but if there is a major recession in the US-- let's just say I wouldn't want to be here.

You do have a point though. Most of the anti-Semitic spew I've been hearing has been coming from whites, though this is probably inevitable because these are mostly white gatherings. There is indeed a very disproportionate amount of anti-Semitic statements coming from non-white minorities, some Hispanics but mostly African-Americans. It's nasty talk, too. African-Americans as a group seem to be a permanent underclass, a very large minority, and they especially seem to resent the market-dominant minority status of Jews. In fact, some 300,000 African-Americans convert to Islam every year and rising.

I don't have much confidence in the US overall over the next few decades. In 20-30 odd years, not 2050, Whites will be a minority. I used to work as a tech part-time in a big hospital that served both urban and suburban areas, in Illinois, with some periods spent in the ob-gyn section. I've done this on and off for many years, and the number of white children has plummeted to record low levels, while births to African-Americans, Hispanics and Arabs continue to rise beyond reckoning. I like some of your ideas here, I just don't think they're feasible in the policy environment we have. My well-educated friends, even if they finished their education early, just don't want to have kids.

Even though people talk so much about illegal immigration, the real problem is the legal immigration, now above 1 million every year, and it crowds the cities so much that highly-educated, professional whites refuse to start families.

I'm probably not going to stay in the US much longer. I'll be emigrating, either to Israel, or to some of the central European countries that seem to be at least reasonably friendly to their Jewish communities.

crush41 said...

Joshua,

I am surprised to hear your personal experience. Isn't Anti-semitism worse in most of Europe than it is in the US? At my church there is a lot of solidarity with the Jewish faith, although secular politics are scarcely discussed (I'm ELCA Lutheran--it's hard to get more removed from the world than that).

Except for the talent of elocution (I can't recall a time I've met an Ashkenazi that doesn't speak well), I find it difficult to distinguish between a nominal Jew and a Gentile. Your fear that there will be a backlash against Jews when the next inevitable recession hits strikes me as unlikely. I think ire will be directed toward Hispanic laborers who will continue to compete with working class natives for a shrinking number of jobs and wage stagnation.

As for buoying the white birth rate, we have to try something. France has implemented a plan that pays women almost minimum wage to have a third child. Of course this could be disastrously abused, but I do not oppose the general principle of having the childless subsudize the fecund. The trick is to find a way to encourage those with the most means (and by extension higher IQs) to make more babies.

Joshua said...

Crush 41,

Thanks for your comments. I used to think along your lines, but I've realized the reality is a lot more subtle and quite different, and the US is indeed in danger of going in the same direction where many formerly philo-Semitic countries have gone.

The situation in Europe is actually quite complicated and varies enormously from country to country. The nation with perhaps the worst anti-Semitic bent is Britain oddly enough, they've been on the forefront of the anti-Israel boycott movement in Europe and have a really nasty, imperious, supercilious anti-Semitism that you can viscerally feel. I went there recently and I had to get out before I was scheduled to leave. It's partly the blame of the immigration influx there, but British whites have a nasty little chip on their shoulder against this.

One of my old friends said that the British in prior decades and centuries were just as anti-Semitic as other countries, but they had a more passive-aggressive psychology, and wanted rather for other countries and their dictators to do the ugly work. With other countries now not willing to do the dirty work, Britain's latent anti-Semitism has been getting more overt. Another very smart friend of mine pointed out that the British have taken an anti-Semitic turn ever since the very ugly, personal and brutal wars fought by the British military against Israeli nationalists in 1947 and 1948, in which the British were defeated by an incredibly brutal bombing campaign that killed off much of their colonial officer class. The British perceive these attacks as being a major factor in the collapse of the British Empire after WWII, since ironically the Israeli victory against the British accelerated revolutions and British defeats in places like Burma, Egypt and south Arabia later on. Both the British left and right have an undercurrent of this anti-Semitism and it's not pleasant.

It's different and variable on the Continent. Central Europe countries like Germany and Austria, of all places, are really Jew-friendly these days. They're not happy with every aspect of Israeli policy, but they have a sense of balance, and their intellectual bent naturally meshes well with the Jewish mindset. Remember, the German lands were the most philo-Semitic in Europe for many centuries, and Hitler (who was basically an uneducated Viennese hoodlum) victimized millions of gentile as well as Jewish Germans. The first victims of the concentration camps were not Jews, but hundreds of thousands of Germans who had opposed Hitler! It's amazing that, even despite this, millions of Germans, both in Germany and among the Germans' own diaspora, vigorously opposed Hitler in the 1930's and 1940's at such great risk to themselves, and led the country to economic recovery and regional superpower status after the war. The experiences of myself and my fellow Jewish friends in Germany resonate with this. The Germans aren't slavishly pro-Jewish or pro-Israeli as I said, they've long got over the guilt-tripping post-WWII phase, they just see as fellow Europeans and fellow Germans when we get citizenship, and as an admired group since our own focus on achievement fits on so well with their own culture.

As for the rest of Europe? Italy has its moments but it's not bad, not bad at all. Spain, the old home of the Spanish Inquisition, is fine. The Dutch and Belgians, and especially the Scandinavians are remarkably Jew-friendly. Even France-- yes, I said France-- isn't as bad as I thought it would be before I went there. The thing is, much of the French anti-Semitism recently has been from the North Africans, but native French Gentiles dislike these anti-Semitic thugs as much as French Jews do, among both the left and right-- I can read French, and it's heartening to read the thoughts of ordinary French people in their blogs and in the media. In fact, anti-Semitism among the Dhimmis is so disliked among the French rank and file, it's practically become grounds for accusations of radical Islamism and immediate deportation. France is fine. I *am* still very leery about Eastern Europe, where anti-Semitism is rearing its head again. And Russia? Brr, stay away from that mess. But most of Central and Western Europe is fine.

I know this may counter some of the conventional wisdom, but it's in the USA where I fear things are going to explode for us, and soon. For one thing, as I said, the large black population of the US is going anti-Semitic in a hurry, with millions of their members and perhaps soon a majority embracing a particularly nasty version of Islam (and I'm not talking about Farrakhan's movement, I'm referring to supposedly mainstream Islam, though this varies from city to city).

For another thing, whites in the US really are getting very, very angry about the Iraq War, and the blame-the-Jews meme is getting louder and stronger. I and most of my Jewish friends opposed the Iraq War, but I can see where this is coming from-- most of those prominent neocons who pushed it were Jewish, even though many (including some of the most powerful among them) were not. Perle, Abrams, Feith, Wolfowitz, you've heard it before. There's an undercurrent of resentment among a whole lot of American Whites because of this, and it grows more open and bitter as we encounter economic reversals that some connect up to the wars. This probably explains a lot of the whispered (increasingly loud whispers) anti-Semitism I've been detecting at the bars and auto races. I'm getting out, as are quite a few others.

As for your ideas to push pro-Natalist policies among smart Americans, I sense that these things would indeed work in Europe, where they have a much stronger sense of ethnic solidarity, but are politically impossible in the multiethnic, multicultural US, even more so as whites head for minority status here. The one thing we could do is to repeal the alternative minimum tax (AMT), which is just deadly to already strapped White middle class families and sharply reduces their fertility levels. But even this may be tough since we're in such financial straits and the deficits are so high. I just don't think the US is a good place to raise my kids anymore, not with skyrocketing deficits, entanglement in major wars, massive third world immigration, nasty political divisions and rising anti-Semitism to boot.

crush41 said...

Joshua,

Thanks for relaying your personal experiences.

I wonder to what extent favorability ratings of Israel proxies for favorability of native Jews in each country. You're probably cognizant of an EU poll a couple of years back in which 59% of Europeans listed Israel as the greatest threat to world peace and stability.

Meanwhile, support in the US for Israel--historically always having been higher than the rest of the developed world--has spiked to 68% favorable, 23% unfavorable according to a Gallup poll conducted in February of this year.

Corresponding to the rise in support for Israel has been a precipitous decline in America's perception of Islam. A CBS poll last month showed 45% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Islam (compared to just 19% favorable). Parenthetically, favorability of Judaism is 47% to only 16% unfavorable--better than the opinion of "fundamentalist" Christianity, which comes in at 31% favorable, 31% unfavorable.

I think a racheting up of anti-semititism among the increasingly destitute black underclass and a more vociferous clammoring from Hispanics (the most anti-Semitic ethnic group in the US--unsurprisingly in light of Chavez' recent comments) will be met with further disdain for these groups among white Americans.

My sentiment is very pro-Israel. Unfortunately, Iraq has made Israel's condition more tenuous. The optimal outcome going forward will be the development alternative energy sources to obsolesce petrol, the completion of the Israeli security fence, and further restrictions on Muslim immigration to the Old Continent. At that point, Israel and the rest of the developed world can--free of economic dependence on the miasma--let the ME descend back into the 7th century and become another sad, but relatively innocuous, Africa. We can then focus on propping up future Musharraf's in Pakistan and keeping nuclear weapons out of Islamic hands with firepower instead of nation-building.

Don't leave! It might not be as bad as you think.

mannfred said...

http://statisticsoftheworld.page.tl