Steve Sailer's perspicacity is like a fine wine, starting off good and getting even better over time.
In a Reuters-Ipsos two-way generic 2018 mid-term congressional ballot (N = 61,712), Republicans garner 53.9% of the married vote compared to only 34.3% of the unmarried vote.
Republicans get 47.3% of the vote among men of any marital status compared to 42.6% among women of any marital status.
The marital gap is 19.6 points. The gender gap is just 4.7 points.
Okay, the post's title is hyperbolic. Gender matters some, but matrimony matters a lot more--over four times as much.
Tearing down borders and tearing down marriages are both quite good for the left's electoral prospects.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Color doesn't matter, ideology does
So says Shapiro, anyway.
A Reuters-Ipsos poll of tens of thousands of registered, self-described conservatives who intend to vote in the mid-terms suggests that, at least when it comes to political outcomes, Benny Passports is incorrect. The following graph shows the percentages of conservatives who plan on voting for the congressional Democrat candidate in a two-way race next month (the residuals not shown are the percentages of each who plan on voting Republican):
For more than 4-in-5 conservative blacks, whatever the conservative party is selling isn't enough to overcome the attractiveness of supporting the de facto liberal non-white party just to vote for the de facto conservative white party. The same is true for approaching half of conservative Asians and Hispanics, and for 1-in-3 conservative Jews.
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Georgia's racial gubernatorial race
A SurveyUSA poll on the upcoming gubernatorial election in Georgia asked respondents about who they planned on voting for and also about their opinions on eight policy questions.
What jumps out immediately from the results is how much wider the racial disparity is on the question of who to vote for than it is on any of the specific policy questions, even the one on guns--one of the most racially polarizing 'hot button' issues in the country.
While Georgia is a state in which non-Hispanic whites will be a minority by the 2020 presidential election and is currently 15% Hispanic and Asian, the survey only broke respondents down into two racial categories, non-Hispanic white and black. The 9% of registered respondents who are other than white or black are excluded here.
The following graph shows the net absolute differences between whites and blacks on the candidate they intend to vote for and on each of the eight policy questions. That is, the higher the value, the greater the racial disparity (N = 971):
Ben Shapiro wept, Lee Kuan Yew's ghost laughed. Ideology doesn't really seem to matter all that much. When it comes to actually determining who gets power, identity matters more than ideology does.
We see the same thing when we look at how non-white "conservatives"--who opposed abortion, opposed welfare, supported gun rights, etc--voted in the 2012 presidential election. While they described themselves as politically more closely aligned with Romney, they voted overwhelmingly for Obama anyway.
What jumps out immediately from the results is how much wider the racial disparity is on the question of who to vote for than it is on any of the specific policy questions, even the one on guns--one of the most racially polarizing 'hot button' issues in the country.
While Georgia is a state in which non-Hispanic whites will be a minority by the 2020 presidential election and is currently 15% Hispanic and Asian, the survey only broke respondents down into two racial categories, non-Hispanic white and black. The 9% of registered respondents who are other than white or black are excluded here.
The following graph shows the net absolute differences between whites and blacks on the candidate they intend to vote for and on each of the eight policy questions. That is, the higher the value, the greater the racial disparity (N = 971):
Ben Shapiro wept, Lee Kuan Yew's ghost laughed. Ideology doesn't really seem to matter all that much. When it comes to actually determining who gets power, identity matters more than ideology does.
We see the same thing when we look at how non-white "conservatives"--who opposed abortion, opposed welfare, supported gun rights, etc--voted in the 2012 presidential election. While they described themselves as politically more closely aligned with Romney, they voted overwhelmingly for Obama anyway.
Monday, October 15, 2018
The merciless savagette
American Indian? Big deal. I'm an M-effing knuckle-dragging Neanderthal, bitches:
Where's my POC zombie ascendancy status? And I'm an Injun, too, just like Vox Day:
Demographic compositions of Clinton and Trump voters in 2016
If the Republican party is to remain politically viable at the national level, the country must remain majority-white.
At what point will a Republican in an official capacity at the national level admit the obvious? What's the over-under on it happening before the country becomes majority-minority? Sure, it'll happen at sometime after the demographic flip, when acknowledging it no longer matters, but that's unremarkable.
Paralleling the fundamental question of our time, the fundamental political question of America in the next several Current Years is whether or not the Republican party has the will to survive.
At what point will a Republican in an official capacity at the national level admit the obvious? What's the over-under on it happening before the country becomes majority-minority? Sure, it'll happen at sometime after the demographic flip, when acknowledging it no longer matters, but that's unremarkable.
Paralleling the fundamental question of our time, the fundamental political question of America in the next several Current Years is whether or not the Republican party has the will to survive.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)